农业保险、粮食产量与灾害适应

Agricultural Insurance,Grain Yield and Disaster Adaptation

农业保险保障水平的不断提高对维护粮食安全具有重要作用。本文在分析农业保险对粮食产量的理论影响基础上,构建了“适应性预期-局部调整”模型并利用省级面板数据和系统GMM估计方法进行实证分析。结果表明:农业保险对粮食单产和总产均具有显著正向影响,但主要通过影响粮食单产影响粮食总产出,对播种面积的影响不显著。其中,农业保险对灾害风险较高的非粮食主产省的粮食产量影响显著,对粮食主产省的粮食产量影响不显著,灾害风险对农业保险的产量影响具有正向调节作用。粮食产量的灾害适应能力整体较弱,且在考虑预期灾害条件下更弱,其中粮食单产的灾害适应能力小于粮食总产且有减弱趋势。研究结论对于评估农业保险的正外部性和粮食产量的灾害适应能力具有现实意义。

The continuous improvement of agricultural insurance guarantee level plays an important role in maintaining food security.Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of agricultural insurance on grain yield,this paper constructed the"Adaptation Expectation-Partial Adjustment"model and made an em⁃pirical analysis using provincial panel data and systematic GMM estimation method.The results showed that agricultural insurance had a significant positive effect on grain yield per unit area and total yield,but it main⁃ly affected grain yield per unit area and had no significant effect on sown area.Among them,agricultural insur⁃ance had a significant impact on the grain yield of non-grain major producing provinces with high disaster risk,but had no significant impact on the grain yield of major producing provinces,and disaster risk positively regulated the impact of agricultural insurance on grain yield.The disaster adaptation capacity of grain yield was weak on the whole and even weaker when considering the expected disaster conditions,in which the disas⁃ter adaptation capacity of grain yield per unit area was smaller than the total yield and tended to weaken.The conclusions had practical significance for evaluating the positive externalities of agricultural insurance and the disaster adaptability of grain production.