微博口碑对电影票房的影响研究

The Influence of Microblog Word of Mouth on Box Office

本文对55部电影的微博口碑进行采集,构成了244个截面的面板数据,并探讨了以下四个问题:(1)口碑内容(情感倾向、口碑评分)对电影票房产生怎样的影响?(2)不同特征的口碑发布者在内容的情感倾向上有何差异?(3)什么样的用户充当意见领袖,发布的口碑信息对票房的影响更大?(4)粉丝群体的参与将产生怎样的作用?结果表明:(1)微博用户对电影的评价呈现出“好评趋向”,负面口碑对电影票房产生显著的消极作用,而正面口碑并没有起到显著的促进效果。口碑通过用户分享在不同媒体平台站点之间流通,上一期来自“豆瓣网”分享口碑中的“差评占比”与下一期票房呈现显著的负相关;(2)不同性别、受关注量、关注量、发文量以及认证状态的用户在发布口碑的情感倾向上有所差异;(3)本文发掘了微博电影口碑中可能的意见领袖线索——身份认证,相对于“未完成认证”状态的用户,“完成认证”拥有更大的口碑影响力。随着受关注量的增长,口碑发布人的影响力并非线性增长,而是呈现倒“U”形结构。(4)在意愿型口碑占总口碑之比对电影票房产生影响的过程中,电影参演明星的粉丝的参与度扮演着调节作用,而粉丝在口碑中的参与度过高时,意愿型口碑占比将对票房产生反向作用。

To explore the influence of MWOM(microblog word-of-mouth)on movie box office,the study collects related posts from Weibo using the names of 55 movies as key words.After being filtered and classified,those data formed panel data with 244 cross sections.This study aims to answer the following four questions:(1)What is the impact of the content(valence,and rating)of MWOM on box office revenue?(2)Who are posting the different valence of MWOM?and(3)Who are opinion leaders with great influence?(4)What impact has been brought by fans?The result shows that,(1)Weibo has witnessed a“positive trend”on reviews of movies,and negative comments have more passive impact on movie sales compared with the enhancing impact brought by positive comments.This paper takes the sharing of WOM between different social media sites into consideration,which was usually neglected by former studies.The data analysis demonstrates that the ratio of negative WOM shared from Douban has significantly reduced movie revenue.Besides that,(2)users with different gender,follower numbers,following number,verified status and Weibo numbers differ in valence of MWOM.For question(3),this study finds out a possible clue for locating opinion leaders in MWOM:verified status.The verified status of blogger has shown a great boost on the influence of MWOM.The influence of bloggers follows an upside-down“U”law with the increase of follower numbers.(4)This paper also discovered the moderating role of fans engagement in the process of intention MWOM influencing movie sales.When the ratio of fans engagement is too high,the movie sales might suffer from a higher intention MWOM ratio.