美国大选与世界格局的走向

American General Election and Future World Order

2020年美国大选已经尘埃落定,民主党取得了大选胜利,拜登将出任下一届美国总统。根据民主党的思想基础和执政理念、拜登近期发表的一系列讲话,以及拜登政府内阁班子的已定人选,拜登入主白宫之后的一些重要施政理念和做法、主要政策取向已经初见端倪。在这种情况下,世界格局的发展走向如何?这需要从力量格局、治理格局、安全文化格局等三方面予以考虑。

This article discusses some possible developments of the world in the foreseeable future, focusing on three dimensions, i. e. power structure, global governance, and global security culture. It is likely to see a more multiple,multipolar and multiplex world. The American hegemony has ended and hegemony as a form of world order is over.In addition, no bipolarity will be established and legitimately accepted. Second, it is likely to see a more decentralized mode of global governance. Globalization will continue despite the strong opposition forces and so will governance at the global level. But regional and issue-area governance will become more active and relevant. Third, it is likely to see a more competitive security culture in international community. An overall cooperative global security culture that emerged with an embryonic world society since the end of the Cold War is now seriously challenged. These general trends will be changed little by the 2020 American general election.