技术网络中新兴技术的突破机会的APL识别方法

APL Identification Method for Breakthrough Opportunities of Emerging Technologies in Technology Networks

随着高影响力的新兴技术不断涌现,精准地掌握新兴技术的突破趋势可以有效的节约研究开发费用,提高研究开发效率。把投入产出网络的APL模型方法和文本挖掘方法结合起来,生成在一定的阈值下的若干科技领域的主流群落和热点领域,抓取在融合的基础上涌现出的若干科技突破机会。以德温特专利数据库的数据为数据源,选择电子、通讯、软件、传感器、物联网等51个科学技术领域,并将这些科技领域分别按照2006—2008年、2009—2011年、2012—2014年、2015—2017年等4个时间段进行专利检索,基于专利引用强度矩阵,测算科技领域之间的"距离",在"距离"数据基础上绘制可视化的知识图谱,其中知识图谱中的方框的大小代表领域的热度,领域之间的连线的粗细代表技术突破的机会的大小。

Domestic and foreign scholars’ methods for emerging technology identification include patent citation analysis,TRIZ theory based on patent structure(revealing the inherent laws and principles of invention,focusing on clarifying and emphasizing the contradictions in the system,and obtaining the final ideal solution),text mining method,SAO theory(reflecting the performance between technical points according to the subject predicate object structure of text information).Based on the input-output network method,this paper studies the impact of technology achievements on other technology fields and their own in the technology network.In the patent network,the patent citation or self citation between nodes can be represented.By using APL model,the relationship between core knowledge of multiple science and technology domains can be highlighted.Combining patent citation analysis method,TRIZ theoretical method based on patent structure,text mining method,social network method and other methods,identify the mainstream communities and hotspots formed in several scientific and technological fields under a certain threshold,and identify several emerging technologies Breakthrough opportunities.Based on the data of Derwent patent database,51 science and technology fields were identified,and the51 science and technology fields were retrieved according to four time periods of 2006-2008,2009-2011,2012-2014 and 2015-2017.Using input-output APL model method,based on patent citation intensity matrix,this paper calculates the "distance" between science and technology fields,draws a visual knowledge map based on the "distance" data,and identifies hot areas(the size of the box in the knowledge map represents the "heat" of each field),and the thickness of the connection between the fields represents the opportunity of technological breakthrough.It is found that during the period of 2006-2008,the top five fields of heat in the field are: electronics,software,artificial intelligence,Internet and solar energy;the top five opportunities for technological breakthrough among fields are: Electronics and medical equipment,electronics and advanced manufacturing,electronics and blockchain,gene and nuclear energy,gene and enzyme and fermentation.During the period of 2009-2011,the top five hot fields were: new energy vehicles,fast charging,electronics,aircraft and gene.The top five technological breakthrough opportunities in different fields are: gene and enzyme and fermentation,gene and protein,fast charging and enzyme and fermentation,nano and advanced materials,virtual reality and advanced weapons.In 2012-2014,the top five hot fields are: intelligent and automatic control,electric machinery,new energy vehicles,software and nuclear energy;the top five technology breakthrough opportunities among the fields are: artificial intelligence and medical equipment,electronics and medical equipment,additive manufacturing and enzyme and fermentation,cells and genes,nuclear energy and artificial intelligence.In 2015-2017,the top five hot fields in the field of technology are: Internet,power generation,intelligent and automatic control,power generation machine and membrane technology.The top five technological breakthrough opportunities in different fields are:artificial intelligence and medical equipment,electronics and medical equipment,electronics and advanced manufacturing,marine biology and software,artificial intelligence and blockchain.