钢架雪车运动员竞赛成绩的影响因素研究

Influencing Factors of the Competition Performance in Skeleton

确定与钢架雪车运动员竞赛成绩相关的因素,并分析这些因素影响成绩的作用机制。查阅国际雪车与钢架雪车联合会官方数据库,收集了包括11条赛道8个变量的3 063个成绩数据样本,使用统计学方法对影响成绩的"推橇""操控""赛道变化""滑行轮次"等因素进行相关及对比分析,针对数据结果并结合专家访谈进行逻辑分析,讨论因素影响成绩的机制。研究结果表明:1)男子运动员推橇用时在绝大多数的赛道中都与成绩有显著的相关性,而女子运动员成绩与推橇的相关性较低。2)在男子比赛中,推橇用时与最终成绩在水平较高的运动员中(1~10名)的相关性高于水平较低运动员(11~20名)的相关性。3)竞技水平越高的男子运动员,与最终成绩排名有相关性的计时段越多,相关性也普遍较高;而女子运动员中,与成绩有相关性的计时段数量少于男子运动员。4)人工赛道在各赛季的成绩差异较小,天然赛道在各赛季的成绩差异较大。5)个别比赛日的预赛和决赛成绩会出现显著性差异,一般决赛成绩更好。

In order to figure out the indicators influencing the competitive performance of skeleton,and analyze the mechanism of these indicators,this paper reviews the official database of IBSF and collects data on 8 variables from 11 tracks and 3063 independent samples by using the methods to compare and analyze the factors such as"Push phase","Drive phase","Track change","Race round"that influence the performance.Based on the data results and interviews,logical analysis is carried out to discuss the mechanism of factors influencing performance.The results are as follows:1)There is a significant correlation between mens push time and performance in most of the tracks,while the correlation between womens performance and push time is relatively low.2)Among male athletes,the correlation between the time spent in pushing sled and the results of athletes with higher-level(1-10)was higher than that of lower-level(11-20).3)Among male athletes,the higher the level of athletes,the higher the correlation between the time spent in each period and the final score ranking,while it was similar to that of female athletes.4)The results of artificial track in different seasons are smaller than that of the natural track.5)The preliminary and final results of individual race days will be significantly different,and the general final results will be better.