适应极地快速变化海冰模式的研发与挑战

Development and challenge of sea ice model adapting to rapid polar sea ice changes

极地海冰是地球气候系统的重要组成部分,也是气候环境变化的指示器和放大器。极地海冰复杂的多尺度物理过程和极地观测资料的匮乏,给海冰模式的研发带来了巨大的挑战。在过去的半个多世纪中,大气-海冰-海洋的复杂相互作用和冰内物理过程在海冰模式中的数学描述取得了重大的进展,但海冰模式对一些重要物理过程的描述仍很不完善,尤其是近年来极地海冰的快速变化及其物理特性的变化,极大地增加了海冰模式物理参数化方案和模拟结果的不确定性。因此,迫切需要具备完善物理过程、适应海冰多尺度快速变化的高分辨率海冰模式,并应用于全球气候变化的研究和预测以及极地的开发利用。本文从海冰模式的发展历程和现状、极地海冰快速变化给海冰模式带来的挑战以及适应极地快速变化海冰模式的改进和发展研究方向三个方面进行了阐述和讨论。

Polar sea ice is an important component of the earth’s climate system,and also an indicator and amplifier of climate and environmental changes. The complex multi-scale physical processes of polar sea ice and the lack of polar observations have brought huge challenges to research and development of sea ice models.In the past halfcentury,the mathematical descriptions of complex interactions of atmosphere-sea ice-ocean and sea ice internal physical processes in sea ice models have made significant progresses,but there are still problems to describe some important physical processes realistically,especially the rapid changes of polar sea ice and its physical properties in recent years have greatly increased the uncertainty of physical parameterization schemes and simulation results of sea ice models.Therefore,it is urgent to have a high-resolution sea ice model that has complete physical processes and adapts to rapid multi-scale changes of polar sea ice,and the model is applied to the research and prediction of global climate change and the development and utilization of polar regions.This paper elaborates and discusses the development history and status of sea ice models,the challenges brought by rapid changes of polar sea ice,and the research directions of improvement and development of sea ice model that adapts to rapid polar sea ice changes.