转向世界需求中心与资本市场的关键作用

Turning to World Demand Center and the Key Role of Capital Markets

"双循环"的新发展格局是中国经济从世界供给中心到世界需求中心的重要转向,但实现这种转向面临着启动潜在内需的挑战,主要表现为消费需求相对于投资需求、居民消费支出相对于政府消费支出、乡村消费需求相对于城镇消费需求、居民消费需求中服务性消费的比重均偏低。与提高工资收入和减少政府支出两种途径相比,增加财富收入是在中国语境下启动潜在内需的关键。鉴于此,中国目前应把发展多层次资本市场作为实施扩大内需政策的重点,因为发达的资本市场能够塑造需求的财富效应,即通过增加实际财富收入、强化增收预期、改善企业绩效等方式,直接或间接地促进居民消费水平大幅提高。未来中国需要主动进行经济全球化战略调整,更多运用主场全球化的思维来打造和适应世界需求中心这一国际分工新角色。

The new development pattern of“dual cycle”is an important shift of Chinese economy from a world supply center to a world demand center,but the realization of this shift faces the challenge of triggering potential domestic demand.It is mainly manifested that the proportion of consumption demand relative to investment demand,household consumption expenditure relative to government consumption expenditure,rural consumption demand relative to urban consumption demand,and service consumption in household consumption demand is all low.In comparison with the two ways of increasing wages and reducing government expenditures,increasing wealth and income is the key to triggering potential domestic demand in the Chinese context.In view of this,China should take the development of multi-level capital markets as the focus of implementing policies to expand domestic demand,because it can shape the wealth effect of demand,namely,directly or indirectly promoting a substantial increase in the consumption level of residents by increasing the actual wealth income,strengthening income growth expectations,and improving corporate performance.In future,it is necessary for China to take the initiative to adjust economic globalization strategy that is using more about home market to create and adapt to the new role of world demand center in the international division of labor.