城市大气环境极限承载力及调控方法研究

Study on Ultimate Carrying Capacity and Regulation Methods of Urban Atmospheric Environment

为了解决大气环境极限承载力的计算问题,提出了大气环境极限承载力计算公式,并根据城市能源规划构建以"污染指标-能源"达标为约束的系统动力学模型,即PI-E-SD(Pollution Indicator-Energy-System Dynamics)模型。采用线性回归方法确定了污染指标,解决了指标不统一的问题;采用SD(System Dynamics)建模方法,构建了"能源-经济-环境"模拟系统,量化政府措施使得预测结果较为准确;通过改变控制因素调控极限承载力,便于快速寻找环境优化方案。结果表明,该模型具有良好的适应性可为不同城市在制定节能环保政策时提供参考。

In order to solve the calculation problem of the ultimate carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment, the calculation formula of the ultimate carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment is proposed, and the system dynamics model with the ‘pollution index-energy’ compliance as the constraint is constructed according to the urban energy planning, namely the PI-E-SD(Pollution Indicator-Energy-System Dynamics) model. In this model, the linear regression method is used to determine the pollution index, which solves the non-uniformity problem. The SD-modeling method is used to construct the "energy-economy-environment" simulation system, so that the government measures can be quantified to make the prediction result more accurate. By adjusting the control factors to limit the ultimate carrying capacity, it is easy to quickly find an environmental optimization plan. The results show that the model has good adaptability and can provide reference for different cities in formulating energy conservation and environmental protection policies.