近期中印边境局势及双边关系走向探析

Recent Border Situation between China and India and the Trend of Bilateral Relations

中印建交70周年之际,中印关系不进而退。印方在加勒万河谷、班公湖等地不断越线挑衅,是近期边境局势持续紧张的直接动因,也是中印关系急剧下滑的导火索。更大视野之下,在中美战略竞争加剧之际选择激化而不是回避中印结构性矛盾,对华倾向"对抗性竞争"的同时对美则"战略投机",已成为当前莫迪政府对华政策的基本轮廓。从双边关系趋势来看,印方争当"领导型大国"、谋求相对权力和局部优势,在维持战略自主同时采取战略投机的现实主义博弈逻辑,内在地规制了现阶段中印关系转圜,使得双边关系随着中美战略竞争加剧而步入"转折期",对华强硬很可能成为未来一段时期印度对华政策的主基调,由此使得中印关系目前的"低谷"状态或将成为未来较长时期里的一种"常态"。从互动行为的后果意义上分析,印度已然构成中国次要战略方向上的主要战略竞争对手,中国自身体系压力与周边压力出现了"共振"迹象。

On the occasion of the 70 th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India,Sino-Indian relations have retreated without progress. India’s constant cross-line provocations in the Galavan Valley, Bangong Lake and other places are the direct cause of the continued tension in the border situation and the trigger for the recent setback in Sino-Indian relations. From a broader perspective,choosing to intensify rather than avoid structural contradictions between China and India at a time of intensified strategic competition between China and the United States,"confrontational competition"with China and"strategic speculation"with the United States has become the basic framework of the current Modi government’s strategy toward China. In terms of the prospect of bilateral relations and the trend of interaction between China and India,India’s realistic game logic to be a "leading power"seeks relative power and regional advantages,maintains strategic autonomy and active strategic speculation,inherently regulates that Sino-Indian relations at the present stage which has entered a "turning point"with the intensification of strategic competition between China and the United States. At the same time,it also inherently regulates that being tough with China will become the long-term keyword of India’s policy toward China in the future. In turn,it will make the current "trough"of Sino-Indian bilateral relations become the"normal"for a long time in the future;and in the sense of the consequences of interactive behavior,India has already become the main strategic competitor in China’s secondary strategic direction. On the other hand,there are signs of "resonance"between China’s system pressure and surrounding pressure.