国内外天然气市场中期展望

China and International Gas Market Prospect in the Medium Term

“十三五”时期天然气作为能源清洁低碳转型的现实依靠得到了快速发展,“十四五”时期天然气在加快煤炭替代、促进可再生能源发展、改善居民生活等方面将发挥更重要作用。预计全球天然气市场逐步复苏,需求量年均增长2.5%,但因经济增长放缓、能效水平提高和可再生能源竞争等,低于2016-2019年平均增速。全球天然气价格进入上升通道,2024年亚洲现货到岸价接近9美元/MMBtu。在中国,天然气是治理大气污染和实现碳中和目标的“桥梁”,预计天然气消费年均增长7.1%,迈入中高速增长阶段,到2025年需求量达到4500亿m^(3)。同时,天然气资源保障能力增强,但管道气进口量和LNG进口量增长均快于国产气量增长;天然气干线管网密度和储气库工作气量占消费比重翻一番,供气管线密度提升25%。通过促进竞争和提高市场流动性,全面攻坚市场化改革“最后一公里”。

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period,natural gas,as a balance of cheap,clean and low-carbon fuel,has developed rapidly with the tailwind of energy transition.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,natural gas will play a more important role in accelerating coal substitution,promoting renewable energy development,and improving people's quality of life.It is expected that the global gas market will gradually recover,with an average annual growth of 2.5%.However,due to the slower economic growth and higher efficiency,and the competition of renewable energy,the growth rate is lower than that in 2016-2019.Global gas prices are on the rise,with the Asian spot price expected to approach US$9/MMBtu by 2024.In China,gas is the"bridge"to control air pollution and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.It is estimated that the annual average growth rate of gas consumption will be 7.1%,and the demand will reach 450 bcm by 2025.The capacity of gas supply will improve accordingly.Additionally,the growth of pipeline gas and LNG import are both faster than that of domestic gas.The density of trunk pipeline network and the proportion of working gas storage in consumption will be doubled,with the density of gas supply line set to increase by 25%.The last-mile problem in market-oriented reform will be comprehensively tackled by promoting competition and improving market liquidity.