建设工程项目的邻避风险演化研究

Research on NIMBY Risk Evolution in Construction Projects

建设工程项目邻避风险的演化机制是重大社会风险治理中的重要议题。本文基于自组织理论剖析了建设项目邻避风险的演化机理,在识别公众交互规则基础上确立了邻避风险演化的计算实验模型。研究发现:社区网络结构会影响邻避风险的演化结果,互联互通条件较好的网络结构下邻避风险扩大程度较高;邻避风险并不会随公众环保意识增强而愈演愈烈,而是呈现先增加后平缓下降的倒U型演化趋势;公众从众性会影响认知差异和邻避风险演化到稳定态所需周期,但并不显著改变邻避风险演化结果。研究结果为邻避现象的地区差异和时间差异提供了理论逻辑和计算实验模拟证据,为邻避冲突机理解析和邻避冲突解决方案提供了新的研究支持。

The evolution mechanism of NIMBY risk in construction projects is an important topic in the fields of mega social risk governance.This paper analyzes the evolution mechanism of NIMBY risk of construction projects from the perspective of self—organization theory.After identifying the interaction rules among stakeholders,a computational experimental model of NIMBY risk evolution is established.The results show that the community network structure will affect the evolution result of NIMBY risk.The better the interconnection conditions in the network structure,the faster the NIMBY risk spreads.The relationship between NIMBY risk and public environmental awareness is an inverse u—shaped curve(that is,first increases and then decreases sm oothly).Public conformity affects the cognitive difference and the required time period for NIMBY risk evolution to a stable state,but it does not significantly change the evolution result of NIMBY risk.The results provide scientific explanation for the two kinds of complex NIMBY phenom ena in China,and provide theoretical logic and computational experimental simulation evidence for the regional and temporal differences of NIMBY phenomenon.The research provides a new angle for understanding the NIMBY conflict,and helps to improve the solution of NIMBY governance.