“十四五”我国油气发展路径选择

China’s Option for Oil and Gas Development Path in 14^(th) Five-year Plan Period

自20世纪50年代以来,我国油气发展经历了4次重大战略转型,极大地推动了油气工业的发展,使我国由贫油贫气国发展成为油气生产大国,并在海外建成五大油气合作区。我国能源安全的核心在油气,短板也在油气。21世纪以来,我国油气对外依存度大幅攀升,油气安全风险大增,亟需大力提升国内油气勘探开发力度,发挥国内油气供应的“压舱石”作用。系统梳理分析了我国油气发展战略演变历程,认为新形势下实施“稳油增气”战略是保障我国油气安全的现实选择,建议“十四五”期间将“稳油增气”上升为国家能源战略,并就推动我国原油产量2×108t长期稳定、天然气产量持续增长,提出未来我国油气发展战略部署;在用海用地、技术创新、体制机制及财税政策等方面提出保障措施与建议。

China’s oil and gas industry has experienced four major strategic transformations since the 1950s,significantly promoting the country’s oil and gas industrial development and turning China into one of the main oil and gas producers from an oil-insufficient country.China has also established five major oil and gas cooperative regions overseas.Oil and gas holds the key to China’s energy security but it is also remaining as the weak link in the country’s energy supply.China’s dependence on oil and gas imports has dramatically climbed since the 21st century,substantially increasing the risks for oil and gas security.It is of great urgency to step up China’s domestic oil and gas exploration and development and highlight the key role of the domestic oil and gas supply.This paper systematically analyzes the transformation process of China’s oil and gas development strategy.According to the author,the realistic option for China to secure its oil and gas supplies is to carry out the“keeping oil production stable while increasing gas outputs”strategy under the new situation.It is proposed that“keeping oil production stable while increasing gas outputs”should be regarded as the national strategy during the 14^(th) Five-Year Plan period.The paper also comes up with China’s future oil and gas development strategy in order to keep China’s oil production at 2×10^(8)t on a long-term basis and promote sustainable growth of natural gas production.In addition,it puts forth the suggestions and measures on sea and land use,technological innovation,structuring mechanism and taxation policies.