对百年未有之大变局与新冠疫情叠加影响的若干看法

Views on the Overlapping Influences of the Unprecedented Change in a Hundred Years and the COVID-19 Pandemic

百年未有之大变局的根本变化是西方国家的民心之变、思想之变;此"变"关乎美欧等国舟之载覆及国势升降,亦构成"西方缺失"的大背景。本世纪第三个十年的开局之年,经济因疫而乱,各国因疫而"战",地缘因疫重塑。较之20年前,当今全球地缘态势已发生天翻地覆的变化,并正在出现一个持续十数年的"新常态"。"中国道路"越是成功,来自太平洋彼岸的干扰、颠覆风险就越大;中国不会因"富起来"便无军事威胁。居安思危,军强国安,中国应始终不懈将军事作为应对高强度"大国竞争"乃至保底的手段。

The unprecedented change in a hundred years is the change of people’s hearts and minds in Western countries.This"change"is related to the domestic stability as well as the rise and fall of the national fate of the United States and European countries,and also constitutes the background of"Westlessness".At the very beginning year of the third decade of this century,due to the epidemic,the economy was in chaos,countries were"at war"with each other,and geopolitics was reshaped.Today’s global geopolitical situation has undergone tremendous changes,and a"new normal"that will last more than ten years is looming ahead.The global geopolitical posture 20 years ago could be summarized into three sentences:the Pacific Ocean got narrower,the Atlantic Ocean got wider,and Eurasia got higher.Now we need to add three more sentences to better describe the post-epidemic era:the Indian Ocean will be renamed,the Arctic Ocean has melted,and the Star Wars are getting closer.The more successful the"China’s Road"is,the greater the risk of interference and subversion from the other side of the Pacific;China will not be free from military threats just because it is"rich".In times of peace we should stay alert to dangers;national security could only be ensured with a strong military.Thus China should always make unremitting efforts to use the military as a means to deal with high-intensity"big power competition"and even as the last resort.