摘要
采用STIRPAT模型,通过岭回归方法定量分析山东半岛蓝色经济区的人口数量、人均国内生产总值、能源强度、城镇化水平与碳排放量的关系;设置6种发展模式,分析山东半岛蓝色经济区的碳排放量发展趋势。结果表明:人口数量、人均国内生产总值、能源强度及城镇化水平每变化1%,碳排放量相应变化1.748%、 0.153%、-0.218%、 0.365%;高增长-中减排模式下碳排放量增速最快;结合山东半岛蓝色经济区的发展态势,确定中增长-高减排模式为控制碳排放量的最佳发展模式。
The relationship between population,per capita gross domestic product,energy intensity,urbanization level and carbon emission in the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone were quantitatively analyzed by using the ridge regression method based on STIRPAT model.Six scenarios were set to analyze the developmental trend of carbon emission in Shandong peninsula blue economic zone.The results show that for every change of 1%in population,per capita gross domestic product,energy intensity,and urbanization level,the carbon emission correspondingly changes by 1.748%,0.153%,-0.218%,and 0.365%,respectively.The mode of high economic growth-medium emission reduction has the highest growth rate of carbon emission.Combined with the development trend of the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone,the mode of medium economic growth-strong emission reduction is determined as the best development model for controlling the carbon emission.
作者
颜伟
黄亚茹
张晓莹
高梦斐
YAN Wei;HUANG Yaru;ZHANG Xiaoying;GAO Mengfei(College of Energy and Mining Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,Shandong,China;State Key Laboratory of Mining Disaster Prevention and Control Co-founded by Shandong Province and the Ministry of Science and Technology,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,Shandong,China)
出处
《济南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第2期125-131,共7页
Journal of University of Jinan(Science and Technology)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51509149,51379119)
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0604700)
山东省重点研发计划项目(2018GSF120009)
国家安全监管总局安全生产重特大事故防治关键技术科技项目(Gaoxiao-0008-2017AQ,Shangdong-0016-2018AQ)
山东科技大学矿业工程一流学科建设专项(01GY03403)。
关键词
碳排放
STIRPAT模型
岭回归
山东半岛蓝色经济区
carbon emission
STIRPAT model
ridge regression
the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone
