中国城乡文化消费与城乡人均收入的动态演化路径及耦合协同效应

Dynamic Evolution Path and Coupled Synergistic Effect of Urban and Rural Cultural Consumption and Urban and Rural Per Capita Income in China

本文运用非线性MS(M)-AR(p)模型,对1994~2017年中国城乡文化消费与城乡人均收入的动态演化路径进行对比分析,刻画中国城乡文化消费及城乡人均收入的波动状况、趋势特征及区制状态,揭示城乡文化消费与城乡人均收入之间所存在的耦合协同效应。结论表明:(1)1994~2017年,中国城乡文化消费与城乡人均收入整体上呈现较为相似的变化情况,二者的增长率动态轨迹具有较高的趋势一致性,同时具有十分相似的波动特征;(2)城乡文化消费增长率与城乡人均收入增长率处于"低速增长区制"与"中速增长区制"时的持续性与可能性均高于"快速增长区制",二者均倾向于保持中低增长速度,不易发生向更高区制状态的转移;(3)城乡文化消费增长率与城乡人均收入增长率处于"中速增长区制"与"低速增长区制"的总体持续时间远长于处于"快速增长区制"的持续时间,二者在转移至高速区制时呈现缓慢的变迁态势,且均倾向于保持中低速增长状态;(4)城乡文化消费增长率与城乡人均收入增长率呈现较为一致的区制转移规律与区制变迁特征,二者之间存在一定的耦合协同效应。

In the first place,this paper makes a dynamic comparative analysis of the evolutionary path between urban and rural cultural consumption and urban and rural per capita income in China from 1994 to 2017.On this basis,using the non-linear MS(M)-AR(p)model,the paper not only depicts the fluctuation,trend and regionalization of urban and rural cultural consumption and urban and rural per capita income in China,but also reveals the coupled synergistic effect between them.The conclusions are as follows:Firstly,between 1994 and 2017,the urban and rural cultural consumption and the urban and rural per capita income in China show a comparatively similar change on the whole.The dynamic track of the growth rate of the two has a greater trend consistency,and at the same time,they have very similar fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,when the growth rate of urban and rural cultural consumption and urban and rural per capita income are in the "slow growth regime" and "moderate growth regime",they are not easy to transfer to the higher regional state,and have greater possibility and sustainability.However,when they are in the "rapid growth regime",they tend to decline rapidly to the "slow growth regime",and the possibility and sustainability have a more obvious decline.In addition,the overall duration of the growth rate of urban and rural cultural consumption and per capita income in the "moderate growth regime" and "slow growth regime" is much longer than that in the "rapid growth regime".Both of them tend to maintain a moderate or slow growth rate,and show a smaller range when they change to the higher regional system.Moreover,both the growth rate of urban and rural cultural consumption and urban and rural per capita income have relatively consistent pattern of regional system transfer and characteristics of regional system change between the two,and revealing the certain coupling and synergistic effect of them.