基于均衡配流模型下城际旅客个体属性对票价的敏感性研究

Analysis on Sensitivity of Intercity Passengers in Individual Attributes to Ticket Price Based on Equilibrium Distribution Model

城际轨道交通票价作为影响客流大小的关键性指标,关系到客流敏感性研究的准确性。为明确城际轨道交通票价调整与不同属性旅客客流间的关系,研究一种基于均衡配流模型的定量分析方法,选取旅客个体属性划分客流结构,利用旅客个体属性及交通工具服务属性的指标建立效用函数,结合西铜城际通道内2025年客流预测数据,将效用值应用于均衡配流模型,用lingo软件计算均衡状态下的西铜城轨客流量,以此为基础,将票价设为变化指标,通过敏感性模型得到西铜城际票价调整与不同属性旅客客流变化的关系。运算结果表明,不同个体属性的旅客客流随票价调整,客流量变化幅度不同,算法能够给出不同属性城际旅客对票价敏感性的具体变化量,改变了以往敏感性分析仅存于定性研究的形式,使研究更为微观具体,为客流的敏感性分析提供借鉴。

Inter-city rail transit fare level is a key indicator affecting passenger flow,which is related to the accuracy of passenger flow sensitivity research.In order to clarify the relationship between fare adjustment and passenger flow with different attributes,this paper provides a quantitative analysis method based on equilibrium distribution model,which the individual attributes of passengers are selected to divide passenger flow structure.The utility function is established by using the indicators of individual attributes of passengers and service attributes of vehicles.Combined with passenger flow forecast data of intercity channel of Xi-Tong in 2025,lingo software calculates the balanced passenger flow of Xi-Tong intercity rail transit in the balanced state.Based on this,the ticket price is set as a change index.The relationship between the adjustment of inter-city ticket price and the change of passenger flow in different individual attributes are obtained by sensitivity analysis model.The results show that passenger flow with different individual attributes are adjusted with fare,and the change range of passenger flow is different.It changes the form of sensitivity analysis which only existed in qualitative research in the past,and provides a reference for the sensitivity analysis of passenger flow.