摘要
基于山东省1959-2018年地面气象观测站逐日降水资料,应用反距离权重插值、Z指数、Mann-Kendall检验及小波分析等研究方法,探讨近60年来山东省降水的时空分布特征及洪旱演变规律。结果表明:空间分布上,降水量存在显著的地区差异,呈现东部多西部少且山区多于平原的空间分布格局。时间分布上,多年平均降水量呈现下降的变化趋势,东部沿海地区下降速率比西北内陆地区快。山东省的洪旱灾害具有年代际变化特征,20世纪70年代前,涝灾频繁,80年代到21世纪初旱灾频繁,21世纪后,主要发生偏涝,洪旱灾害地区间差异明显。研究结果对该省防灾减灾及区域经济发展具有重要意义。
Based on the daily precipitation data of meteorological stations in Shandong Province from1959 to 2018,research methods such as inverse distance weighted( IDW),Z index,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis were used to explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and floods and droughts evolution in Shandong Province in the past 60 years. The results showed that there were significant regional differences in spatial pattern of precipitation with more precipitation distributed in the eastern region and the mountain areas whereas less precipitation in the western region and the plain areas of the province. The average annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend with higher decreasing rates in the eastern coastal areas than those in the northwest. There were obvious inter-decadal variations in the flood and drought series. Before the 1970 s,flood events were frequent,whereas drought events became frequent from the 1980 s to the early 21 st century. Since the 21 st century,light floods became dominant,but spatial difference of these extreme events of floods and droughts became more remarkable. Results of the study can provide scientific support for the disaster prevention and mitigation and in turn contributes to the regional economic development of Shandong Province.
作者
卢书梅
杨传国
谷黄河
LU Shumei;YANG Chuanguo;GU Huanghe(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
2020年第6期60-66,共7页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402706)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目(GYHY201406021)
国家重点实验室自主研究项目(20185044012)
中央高校业务经费项目(2018B55114)。
关键词
降水量
时空特征
洪旱演变
突变分析
小波分析
山东省
precipitation
spatio-temporal characteristics
floods and droughts evolution
abrupt change test
wavelet analysis
Shandong Province