1959-2018年山东省降水时空分布特征与洪旱演变规律

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and floods and droughts evolution in Shandong Province from 1959 to 2018

基于山东省1959-2018年地面气象观测站逐日降水资料,应用反距离权重插值、Z指数、Mann-Kendall检验及小波分析等研究方法,探讨近60年来山东省降水的时空分布特征及洪旱演变规律。结果表明:空间分布上,降水量存在显著的地区差异,呈现东部多西部少且山区多于平原的空间分布格局。时间分布上,多年平均降水量呈现下降的变化趋势,东部沿海地区下降速率比西北内陆地区快。山东省的洪旱灾害具有年代际变化特征,20世纪70年代前,涝灾频繁,80年代到21世纪初旱灾频繁,21世纪后,主要发生偏涝,洪旱灾害地区间差异明显。研究结果对该省防灾减灾及区域经济发展具有重要意义。

Based on the daily precipitation data of meteorological stations in Shandong Province from1959 to 2018,research methods such as inverse distance weighted( IDW),Z index,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis were used to explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and floods and droughts evolution in Shandong Province in the past 60 years. The results showed that there were significant regional differences in spatial pattern of precipitation with more precipitation distributed in the eastern region and the mountain areas whereas less precipitation in the western region and the plain areas of the province. The average annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend with higher decreasing rates in the eastern coastal areas than those in the northwest. There were obvious inter-decadal variations in the flood and drought series. Before the 1970 s,flood events were frequent,whereas drought events became frequent from the 1980 s to the early 21 st century. Since the 21 st century,light floods became dominant,but spatial difference of these extreme events of floods and droughts became more remarkable. Results of the study can provide scientific support for the disaster prevention and mitigation and in turn contributes to the regional economic development of Shandong Province.