基于小世界网络的新冠肺炎疫情谣言传播仿真研究

Simulation of Spread of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Pandemic Rumors Based on Small-World Network

[目的/意义]研究由新型冠状病毒肺炎相关事件所引发的疫情类谣言在网络上的传播机制和模型,对政府有关部门加强网络空间治理和制定防范措施有重要意义。[方法/过程]在经典传染病模型SIR框架下,结合谣言在真实社会网络中的传播情境构建拟合程度更高的SCIR模型。利用ABM仿真技术,在Repast平台上从微观层面构建基于小世界网络的谣言传播模拟系统,通过一系列仿真实验,分析各变量参数的变化对传播效应的影响。[结果/结论]仿真结果显示了小世界网络的结构特性对谣言传播起到加速推动的作用,使谣言在短时间内传播至整个网络;验证了所采用的SCIR模型对谣言传播具有一般适应性,各状态之间的转化是对现实的合理抽象;揭示了疫情类谣言在社交网络中的传播机制和规律,为政府的有效治理和监控提供了理论依据。

[Purpose/significance]This paper studies the mechanism and model of pandemic rumors,based on novel coronavirus pneumonia and its related events.It is of great significance to the relevant of government departments to strengthen cyberspace and formulate preventive measures.[Methods/process]Taking the SIR model of infectious diseases as a reference as well as in combination with the spread of rumors in the real social networks,the SCIR model with high adaptability is adopted.In the use of ABM simulation technology,a simulation system based on small-world network from micro level is established on the Repast platform.Through a series of experiments,the influence of parameter changes on the propagation effect is analyzed.[Result/conclusion]The simulation result proves that the structural characteristics of the small world network accelerate the spread of rumors and make them spread to the whole network in a short time.It is verified that the SCIR model has general adaptability to rumor propagation,and the transformation between different states is a reasonable abstraction of reality.It reveals the mechanism and laws of novel coronavirus pneumonia rumors spreading in social networks and provides a theoretical basis for effective government control and monitoring.