2021年世界经济趋势预判

Forecast of World Economic Trends in 2021

遭遇新冠肺炎疫情重击的世界经济在2020年发生大幅度倒退,除了失业率急速上升以及物价水平持续低迷外,国际金融市场还出现了负利率、负收益率、负油价以及股票市场大面积“熔断”等极端现象。为了遏制与抗阻疫情对经济的深度撕咬与侵害,美联储亘古未有地将美元利率降至零,并罕见地启动了无限制量化宽松,全球数十个国家跟随美联储开启并加大了宽松货币政策;另外,发达国家与新兴市场国家还整齐划一地实施了大规模的财政刺激计划,国债、信用债的发行规模创出历史新高,各种减税举措次第推出,多种政策的合力联动终于让世界经济自2020年第三季度开始显现回升曙光。展望2021年,随着新冠疫苗的落地使用,疫情将得到进一步控制,公众免疫力也会得到有效加强,同时在宽松货币政策与积极财政政策的持续托举之下,世界经济将出现力度不小的增长,但同时也会面临诸如债务违约、通货膨胀以及贸易摩擦等不确定因素的扰动。

The world economy,hit hard by the new crown pneumonia epidemic,will undergo a major retreat in 2020.In addition to the rapid rise in unemployment and the continued downturn in price levels,negative interest rates,negative yields,negative oil prices,and large stock markets have also appeared in the international financial market.Extreme phenomena such as area"fuse".In order to contain and resist the epidemic’s deep bite and damage to the economy,the Fed has unprecedentedly reduced the US dollar interest rate to zero,and has rarely initiated unlimited quantitative easing.Dozens of countries around the world have followed the Fed to initiate and increase easing.Monetary policy;In addition,developed countries and emerging market countries have implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus plans uniformly.The issuance of national debt and credit bonds has reached a record high,various tax reduction measures have been launched for the first time,and multiple policies have been combined.Finally,the world economy began to show signs of recovery from the third quarter of 2020.Looking forward to 2021,with the introduction of the new crown vaccine,the epidemic will be further controlled,and the public's immunity will be effectively strengthened.At the same time,under the continuous support of loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy,the world economy will be very strong.Growth,but at the same time it will also face disturbances from uncertain factors such as debt default,inflation and trade frictions.