不同发展情景下雄安新区用水强度及需水量预测

Water use intensity and water demand prediction of Xiongan New Area under different development scenarios

雄安新区尚处在规划建设阶段,未来发展情景存在不确定性,预测不同发展情景下可能的用水强度及需水量对于指导新区建设发展、实现水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。从社会经济发展模式、用水效率模式和生态环境发展模式三个角度,对雄安新区发展情景进行了概化。结合《河北雄安新区规划纲要》,通过借鉴国内新区以及国内外发达城市近年用水效率值、社会经济发展指标,预测了不同发展情景下新区近期和远期的各类用水强度指标以及相关社会经济发展指标。利用定额法预测了新区近期和远期的生活、工业和农业需水量。利用Tennant法和定额法预测了新区近期和远期的河道内外生态环境需水量。2022、2035年不同发展情景的需水总量分别在8~10、9~12亿m3水平。在注重社会经济发展和生态环境保护的同时,严控用水强度可将用水总量控制在8~9亿m~3相对较低水平。严格控制生活、生产各类用水强度,采取多种措施提高用水效率对于新区控制用水总量,实现水资源可持续利用至关重要。

The Xiongan New Area is still in the planning and construction stage,and there are uncertainties about future development scenarios.Predicting the possible water use intensity and water demand under different development scenarios is of great significance for guiding the construction and development of the Xiongan New Area and achieving sustainable use of water resources.The development scenarios of the Xiongan New Area were generalized from three perspectives:the socio-economic development pattern,the water use efficiency pattern,and the eco-environment development pattern.Based on the“Planning Outline for the Xiongan New Area of Hebei Province”,the short-and long-term water use intensity and related socio-economic indicators of the New Area under different development scenarios were predicted by referring to the water use efficiency and socio-economic development indicators in recent years of the domestic new districts and advanced cities at home and abroad.The quota method was used to predict the short-and long-term domestic,industrial and agricultural water demand,and the Tennant method and the quota method were used to predict the short-and long-term eco-environmental water demand inside and outside the river in the New Area.The total water demand for different development scenarios in the year 2022 and 2035 are 0.8~1.0 and 0.9~1.2 billion cubic meters,respectively.While focusing on socio-economic development and eco-environmental protection,strict control of water use intensity can keep the total water consumption to a relatively low level of 0.8~0.9 billion cubic meters.Strictly controlling the water use intensity,and taking various measures to improve water use efficiency are important for the New Area to control the total water consumption and achieve sustainable use of water resources.