金融科技与商业银行系统性风险——基于对中国上市银行的实证研究

FinTech and Commercial Banks’Systemic Risk An Empirical Study on Listed Banks in China

基于2008-2018年间中国26家上市银行的非平衡面板数据,对金融科技与商业银行系统性风险之间的关联机制与影响效应进行多维度的理论与实证分析,可发现:金融科技整体上提高了我国银行业的系统性风险,即随着金融科技的高速发展,商业银行的风险承担倾向会提高,进而加重银行业的系统性风险;金融科技的影响具有异质性,相对中小银行,金融科技对国有大型商业银行系统性风险溢出的作用程度较低;经济增长、金融发展、货币政策、人民币实际汇率以及国际利差等因素也对商业银行系统性风险溢出存在不同程度的影响。

Based on the unbalanced panel data of 26 listed banks in China from 2008 to 2018,this paper conducts a multi-dimensional theoretical and empirical analysis on the linkage mechanism and impact effects between FinTech and commercial banks’systemic risk.The results show that:(1)On the whole,FinTech has increased the systemic risk of China’s banking sector.(2)Further analysis by constructing a mediating effect model confirmed the existence of risk-taking’s mediating mechanism.With the rapid development of financial technology,the risk-bearing tendency of commercial banks will be strengthened,which will increase the systemic risk of the banking sector.(3)But the influence of FinTech is heterogeneous.Compared with small and medium banks,FinTech has a lesser degree of effect on systemic risk spillovers of large state-owned commercial banks.(4)In terms of other control variables,factors such as economic growth,financial development,monetary policy,RMB real exchange rate,and international interest rate differentials have a significant impact on the systematic risk spillovers of commercial banks.