汕尾市引发灾害性海浪的热带气旋特征研究

CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT CAUSE DISASTROUS WAVES IN SHANWEI CITY

近年来,海浪灾害是威胁近海民众生命安全最为突出的海洋灾害,对我国造成的经济损失有整体上升的趋势。基于31 a(1986-2016年)汕尾市观测站的热带气旋影响期间白天的海浪数据,本文定义并提取了31次灾害性海浪(1/10大波波高≥4 m)事件。在灾害性海浪发生时,热带气旋主要位于观测站点的西侧(115.57°E以西)。31次灾害性海浪事件集中发生于6-9月;其中,虽然6月份影响研究海域的热带气旋数量相对较少,但引发灾害性海浪的概率约是7-9月份的两倍。有26个热带气旋生成于121°E以东的西太平洋海域,且移动路径相对较集中:途经吕宋海峡(16°-22°N)的热带气旋总数为25个,其中22个热带气旋途经16°-20°N之间,是最为重要的通道。途经此处的热带气旋在汕尾海域引发灾害性海浪的估算概率约为25%-50%。本研究可为汕尾市灾害性海浪的预警报和防灾减灾提供重要的参考。

In recent years,wave disaster from tropical cyclone caused increasing economic losses in China,and it is also the most prominent marine disaster that threatens people’s safety.Based on 31-years(1986—2016)ocean wave data during tropical cyclone recorded in the Shanwei Station,Guangdong,China,31 disastrous wave(1/10 wave height≥4 m)events were extracted.The tropical cyclones were mainly centered in the west of the station(west of 115.57°E)when the disastrous wave happened.The 31 events occurred mainly from June to September.Although few tropical cyclones arrived in June,the incidence of disastrous wave events was twice as that from July to September.Among the 31 events,26 were generated in the western Pacific(east of 121°E),and their propagation paths were relatively concentrated:25 tropical cyclones passed through the Luzon Strait region(16°—22°N),and 22 were between 16°N and 20°N,the most important channel.About 25%—50%of the tropical cyclones via the Luzon Strait region caused disastrous waves in Shanwei City.This study provides an important reference for the early warning,prediction,and disaster prevention and mitigation of the disastrous wave in Shanwei City.