后疫情时代下国际家具业的新格局(上)

New Pattern of International Furniture Industry in Post COVID-19 Pandemic Era

近代人类社会的全球化有两轮:第一轮是自19世纪下半叶至20世纪初期,即1860—1914年,随后的第一次世界大战结束了这一轮全球化;第二轮是20世纪70年代开始到90年代进入高潮的全球化,亚洲家具业快速发展,全球家具业形成了亚洲、欧洲和北美三极。在第二轮全球化时期,全球家具业的格局呈现出主要特征有:大多数的家具贸易发生在经济区内部;从家具贸易的数量(以质量计)来看,与家具贸易(以金额计)出现了不同的情况;出口导向的国家和地区出现了明显的贸易顺差,但生产大国和地区未必幸运。2008年由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机后,全球家具业的格局又发生了新的变化:亚洲家具业的内部发生产业转移,中国家具业有相当部分向东盟国家转移,越南、印度家具业发展迅速;欧洲家具业东欧国家如波兰等国兴起,传统家具强国云集的西欧相对衰落;美国家具业取得了一些恢复。当今世界正面临着百年以来的大变局,其表现之一就是自20世纪70年代以来的经济全球化版图已被改写,进入了"2.0"版。其与之前的"1.0"版经济全球化的不同之处在于西方国家面临着民粹主义、单边主义的民意和思潮,筑起了贸易保护主义的壁垒;二是货物全球贸易量下降,而货物区域性贸易量上升,近日RECP的签订更表明了这种区域化的趋势。新兴国家如亚洲的越南、欧洲的波兰等将进一步争夺中国的家具出口市场份额,传统发达家具业国家将部分恢复本土生产。2008年以来已分化的国际家具业格局将进一步分化。中国家具业必须注意因产业转移引起的"空心化",加强基础能力的提升,逐渐实现全面的现代化。

In the contemporary history,there were two rounds of globalization:the first of which was dur?ing 1860—1914 and ended by the First World War,and the second of which was initiated in 1970 s andboomed in the 1990 s. Asian furniture industry rapidly developed in the 1990 s. Since then,there existsthree poles in the international furniture industry that are Asian,Europe and North American. After 2008’s financial crisis,the new change occurred,including the inner shift in the Asian furniture industry suchas Chinese furniture industry.s transmitting to ASEAN countries and the booming of Eastern Europe,andsome recovery of US furniture industry. In recent years,the edition of globalization initiated in the 1970 swas revising to another edition whose characters are that the commodities trade is decreasing and the ser?vice trade is increasing,on the other hand,the global trade is partially altered to regional trade. The devel?oping countries such as Vietnam are struggling for the share of international furniture market with us. TheCOVID-19 pandemic disrupted the international trade,the divided pattern of international furniture indus?try would be complicated further. Chinese furniture industry needs to be vigilant on"industrial hollow?ing?out"resulted in the industry shift and to strengthen its basic capabilities such as the development ofbasic material and the innovations of basic software for processing and to finish total modernization gradu?ally.