区域产业融合与农民收入协调发展及互动关系研究——基于省级面板数据的分析

Research on the Coordinated Development and Interactive Relationship between Industrial Integration and Farmers'Income:Based on the Data Analysis of Provinces

采用实证分析方法(LLC检验、面板格兰杰因果检验,构造PVAR模型进行脉冲响应分析等),对2003—2018年中国29个省份的面板数据进行分析,检验产业融合与农民收入之间的协调发展及其互动关系,旨在回答区域一二三产业融合是否提升了农民收入和农民收入增长是否促进了区域一二三产业融合两个问题。研究发现,2003—2018年农民收入增长受到一二产业融合和一三产业融合正向影响,而农民收入的增长积极反向促进一二三产业之间融合发展;产业融合与农民收入发展间存在轻度不协调,具体表现为产业融合滞后;产业融合程度不同,各地区产业融合与农民收入的协调性有一定的差异。基于以上结论,提出中国政府应切实兼顾产业融合与农民收入统筹发展、加快培育农业新型经营主体和创新产业融合的经营业态。

The empirical analysis methods(LLC test,panel Granger causality test,impulse response analysis of PVAR model,etc.)are used to analyze the panel data(excluding Beijing and Shanghai)of 29 provinces from 2003 to 2018.Test the coordinated development and interactive relationship between industrial integration and income of farmers,aiming at answering two scientific questions:whether the integration of rural primary and secondary industries has improved farmers'income and whether the growth of farmers'income has promoted the integration of rural primary and secondary industries.Empirical tests confirm that the growth of farmers'income from 2003 to 2018 is positively affected by the integration of primary and secondary industries and the integration of primary and tertiary industries,while the growth of farmers'income promotes the industrial integration positively.The results show that,there is a slight disharmony between industrial integration and farmers'income,which is manifested by lagging industrial integration.And there are regional differences in the coordination between industrial integration and farmers'income.Based on the results,three suggestions are given in this paper,balancing the development of industrial integration and income of farmers,cultivating new agricultural business entities,and innovating business forms of industrial integration.