“一带一路”地区百余年地震时空演变特征

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of earthquake in“the Belt and Road”for over 100 years

本研究基于“一带一路”地区1900-2018年间≥5级地震事件空间数据,采用小波周期与热区识别方法,分析了该地区地震灾害的空间分布格局与时间周期性特征,并识别了地震灾害空间热区及其演变特征。研究表明:(1)1900-2018年,“一带一路”地区地震发生频次表现出波动性上升的“三段式”分布,主要发生在亚欧大陆-喜马拉雅山周围的亚欧板块与印度洋板块的交界处以及俄罗斯东部沿海、印度尼西亚东南部的环太平洋地区;(2)地震频发地区和震级较强地区均具有多时间尺度的周期变化特征,及一定的空间聚集性,并逐渐演变成高发热区和高强热区;(3)中国和印度尼西亚发生频率远高于其他国家,而缅甸、孟加拉、马尔代夫等国发生频次较低,但其震级强度相对较大。研究结果提示我们未来针对“一带一路”地区基础设施的投资应适当规避地震频发地区及未来潜在的高强热区,同时加强国际间减灾防灾合作,从而更好的降低或预防“一带一路”地区基础设施建设的地震灾害风险。

Based on the long term earthquake records(magnitude≥5),this study analyzed the spatial distribution pattern and temporal periodicity characteristics of earthquake and identified the spatial hotspots and their evolution characteristics in“the Belt and Road”from 1900 to 2018.The wavelet period and hotspots identification methods were used in this study.The results showed that:(1)The frequency of earthquake over time in“the Belt and Road”showed a“three-segment”characterization during 1900-2018.From the spatial distribution,earthquakes occurred mainly in the junction of Eurasian plate and India Ocean plate around the Eurasian Continental Himalaya Range,as well as the eastern rim of Russia and the Pacific rim of southeastern Indonesia.(2)The regions with high frequent and high magnitude of earthquakes both have the characteristics of multi-time-scale periodic variation and spatial aggregation,and gradually evolve into the hotspots of frequency or intensity.(3)The earthquake frequency in China and Indonesia is much higher than that in other countries,while in Burma,Bangladesh,Maldives and other countries,the frequency of earthquakes is relatively low,but its magnitude is relatively large.The results suggest that the investment of infrastructure in“the Belt and Road”should avoid the areas of earthquake prone and the hotspots of potential high magnitude in future.At the same time,we should strengthen international cooperation in disaster prevention and mitigation.So as to better reduce or prevent the earthquake disaster risk of infrastructure construction in“the Belt and Road”.