基于GIS的重大疫情区域管控辅助决策问题研究

Research on GIS-Based Regional Control of Major Epidemic Diseases to Assist Decision Making

在疫情管控行动中,GIS可提供区域基本地理空间信息、人文信息,基于地理空间进行疫情扩散空间分析、区域人员分析、传播过程分析、管控效果分析和疫情演变态势分析等,并基于GIS疫情扩散仿真推演,决策者可更直观全局把握全局信息。研究了疫情扩散区域管控辅助决策的基本思路,构建了疫情单链路个体传播、多传染源个体感染概率模型、自然传播SEIR群体分析模型、多种管控措施下疫情传播模型等,设计了实验系统的系统架构和基本功能,可为重大疫情区域管控辅助决策提供定量分析方法,为后期系统模拟仿真提供基本支撑。

In the epidemic control action,GIS can provide regional basic geospatial information and cultural information.By analyzing epidemic spread space,regional personnel,propagation process,control effect and outbreak evolution trend based on geographical space,and by simulation and deduction based on GIS,the policymakers can have a more intuitive overview of the overall information.In this paper,we study the basic idea of decision assistance for epidemic spread regional control,and construct the models for outbreak single individual link transmission,multiple source infection probability,natural spread SEIR group analysis and epidemic spread under a variety of controls.In addition,the system architecture and basic function of the experimental system are designed.This study can provide quantitative analysis method for decision assistance in major epidemic regional control and basic support for later system modulation.