国际资本异常流动对经济增长的异质性影响——基于新兴经济体与发达经济体的比较

Heterogeneous Impacts of Abnormal International Capital Flow on Economic Growth——A Comparison between Emerging Economies and Developed Economies

本文利用64个经济体1999-2017年季度数据,基于IV-GMM方法研究国际资本异常流动对经济增长的影响。总样本的回归结果表明,资本流动激增显著推动经济增长;资本流动中断和撤回抑制经济发展;资本流动外逃对经济增长没有显著影响。此外,国际资本异常流动对新兴经济体和发达经济体经济增长的影响呈现明显异质性。新兴经济体资本流动激增和中断对经济增长的影响程度明显高于发达经济体,资本流动撤回仅对发达经济体经济增长具有显著的负效应。新兴经济体经济增长仅对激增和中断较为敏感,体现其对国际资本具有较高的依存度。

Based on the quarterly data of 64 economies during 1999-2017 and the IV-GMM method, this paper studies the impact of abnormal international capital flow on economic growth. The regression results show that the surge of capital flow significantly promotes economic growth;the stop and retrenchment of capital flow inhibit economic development;the capital flow flight has no significant impact on economic growth. In addition, the impact of abnormal international capital flow on the economic growth of emerging economies and developed economies shows obvious heterogeneity. The impact of capital flow surge and stop on economic growth in emerging economies is significantly higher than that in developed economies, and the retrenchment of capital flow only has a significant negative effect on the economic growth of developed economies. The economic growth of emerging economies is sensitive only to the surge and stop of capital flow, which reflects their high dependence on international capital.