城镇职工基本养老保险系统有序性分析:1998~2018——二元征收和费率调整下基于耗散结构理论的测度

Analysis on the Orderliness of the Basic Old-Age Insurance System for Urban Employees from 1998 to 2018--The Measurement Based on the Theory of Dissipative Structure under Binary Levy and Rate Adjustment

城镇职工基本养老保险系统具有耗散结构特征。本文以耗散结构理论与养老保险熵变模型体系为基础,实证分析1998~2018年城镇职工基本养老保险系统运行状况。研究发现,目前城镇职工基本养老保险系统处于健康有序发展的状态,且能够与外界经济系统协调发展;征缴率、缴费遵从度的下降会导致系统熵值增大,而缴费遵从度与实际缴费率的提高能够有效减弱系统熵增的趋势。鉴于此,应明确养老保险系统有序发展定位并发挥熵值的功能,落实养老保险基金中央调剂制度并推进全国统筹,建立起养老保险与经济发展动态协调机制。

The basic old-age insurance system for urban employees has the characteristics of dissipative structure.Based on the dissipative structure theory and the entropy change model system of the old-age insurance,this paper empirically analyzes the operation status of the old-age insurance system from 1998 to 2018.The results show that the basic old-age insurance system for urban employees is in a healthy and orderly development state,and can coordinate with the external economic system;the decrease of collection rate and payment compliance leads to the increase of system entropy,while the improvement of payment compliance and actual payment rate can effectively weaken the trend of entropy increase.So,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as clarifying the orderly development position of the pension insurance system and giving full play to the function of entropy value;implementing the central transfer system of old-age insurance funds and promoting national coordination,establishing a dynamic coordination mechanism between old-age insurance system and economic development.