新医改政策背景下医院药品库存警戒限研究

Alert limit of hospital drug inventory under the background of new medical reform policy

目的:通过设定药品库存警戒限,高效合理控制医院药品库存,进而保障药品供应充足前提下控制成本。方法:分析库存药品成本组成,推导经济订货量(economic order quantity,EOQ)公式模型,根据历史库存数据,通过Crystalball软件蒙特卡罗模拟算法模拟药品库存警戒限,模拟次数设定为15000次。结果:完成EOQ模型建立,实例模拟EOQ平均值为140支;95%置信区间(库存警戒限)为120~161支,设定120支为库存警戒限,140支为正常库存周转限,经实践可满足临床需求,且压低平均库存72支,约合47376元。结论:通过蒙特卡罗模型算法,可模拟预测药品的EOQ以及库存警戒限,结合HIS(hospital information system)实时预警,科学配置库存,降低库存成本,为医院药品库存科学配置提供理论依据。

OBJECTIVE To control the cost of in-hospital drug inventory efficiently and reasonably by setting alert limits of drug inventory on the premise of ensuring drug supplyl.METHODS Cost composition was analyzed.The formula model of economic order quantity(EOQ)was based upon the historical inventory data.The simulation of EOQ and alert limit of drug inventory were completed with Crystal ball software and Monte Carlo simulation algorithm.RESULTS The EOQ model was established with an average value of EOQ at 140.The 95%confidence interval(inventory alert limit)was 120-161 pieces.And 120 pieces were set as an inventory alert limit and 140 pieces a normal inventory turnover limit.Such a practice could meet clinical demands and the average inventory declined to 72 pieces.CONCLUSION The Monte Carlo model may simulate and predict EOQ and inventory alert limit along with HIS real-time warning,scientifically configure inventory,lower inventory cost and provide theoretical rationales for scientific allocation of hospital drug inventory.