湖北省农村能源消费区域差异及影响因素解析

Regional Difference of Rural Energy Consumption in Hubei Province and the Analysis on Influencing Factors

农村能源作为我国能源消费体系的重要组成部分,受到社会、经济和环境等多种因素的共同影响。本文基于湖北农村2008~2016年能源消费相关统计数据,探讨了湖北省农村能源消费的区域差异,并采用线性逐步回归方法对影响湖北农村能源消费的相关因素进行解析。分析结果表明,可以将湖北省的17个地区分成5个类型,其中第Ⅰ类地区包括仙桃、天门、潜江、鄂州、随州、黄石、十堰、咸宁;神农架林区独立被分为第Ⅱ类地区;第Ⅲ类地区由孝感和黄冈组成;第Ⅳ类地区包括荆门、荆州、武汉和恩施;第Ⅴ类地区由宜昌和襄阳构成;湖北省能源消费因素可解析为经济发展水平、农业现代化水平、技术发展水平、资源禀赋及商品能源比例等主要因素,多元回归模型各参数均显著相关(P<0.01),相关系数为0.936,方差检验结果表明模型具显著统计学意义(F=329.789;P<0.01);湖北省五类农村区域能源消费的影响因素呈现差异性,这与湖北省各区域能源消费的异质性保持一致。随着农村经济水平的发展,湖北省各地市农村能源消费的总量规模、人均能源消费、能源消费结构和能源消费效率均发生巨大变化,这归因于经济增长、能源结构、能源效率和资源禀赋等的动态变化和地区差异,各因素将会影响未来湖北省农村能源消费格局。

As an important part of China ′s energy consumption system,rural energy is influenced by social,economic and environmental factors.Based on the statistics of rural energy consumption in Hubei Province from 2008 to 2016,this paper discusses the regional differences of rural energy consumption in Hubei,and analyzes the relevant factors influencing the rural energy consumption in Hubei by using the linear stepwise regression method. Analysis results show that the 17 areas in Hubei can be divided into five categories.Cat-egory Ⅰ includes Xiantao,Tianmen,Qianjiang,Ezhou,Suizhou,Huangshi,Shiyan and Xianning.Shennongjia forest district is classified as Category Ⅱ.Category Ⅲ consists of Xiaogan and Huanggang,Category Ⅳ includes Jingmen,Jingzhou,Wuhan and Enshi,and Category Vconsists of Yichang and Xiangyang.The factors influencing the energy consumption in Hubei can be analyzed as economic development level,agricultural modernization level,technological development level,resource endowment,commodity energy ratio and other major factors.All the parameters of the multiple regression model are significantly correlated( P<0.01),and the correlation coefficient is 0.936.The variance test results show that the model is statistically significant( F=329.789;P<0.01).The influencing factors of energy consumption in the five categories of rural areas in Hubei are different,which is consistent with the heterogeneity of energy consumption in different regions of Hubei.With the devel-opment of rural economy,great changes have taken place in the rural energy consumption in various cities in Hubei in terms of total scale,per capita energy consumption,energy consumption structure and energy consumption efficiency.This is a result of the dynamic change and regional difference of economic growth,energy structure,energy efficiency and resource endowment,and these factors will affect the future pattern of rural energy consumption in Hubei.