黔中地区气候变化对鼠类灾变规律的影响

Influence of Climate Change on Rodent Catastrophe Law in Central Guizhou

为了探索气候变化对鼠类灾变规律的影响,摸清黔中地区不同气候环境鼠类活动最适宜的温度与降雨区间范围,本研究通过对黔中地区息烽县1987—2017年鼠情监测数据与历年温度和降雨的关系进行分析研究,结果表明:黔中地区温度和降雨与当地鼠类种群数量关系密切,且鼠类各种群对气候因子有一定的适应性,不同气候条件(温度与降雨)与鼠类种群数量均存在线性关系。鼠类最适温度区间范围值为22.1~25.0℃,并达到种群数量高峰,而降雨最适宜区间范围值为180.1~210.0 mm,且在住宅区、稻田区、旱地区3种生境鼠类种群均达到数量高峰,当降雨高于210.1 mm时,住宅区种群数量略有下降,旱地区种群数量略有上升,稻田区却趋于平稳,鼠类种群数量随年降雨量起伏,表现为一定的相关关系。

In order to explore the influence of climate change on the rodent catastrophe law,and found out the most suitable temperature and rainfall range for rodent activities in different climate environments in central Guizhou,researches were done based on the analysis of the relationship between the monitoring data of rodents in Xifeng County of central Guizhou from 1987 to 2017,and the temperature and rainfall over the years,the results show that the temperature and rainfall in central Guizhou are closely related to the number of local rodents,and the rodents have a certain adaptability to climate factors.There is a linear relationship between the temperature and rainfall and the number of rodents.The optimum temperature range for rodents is 22.1~25.0℃,under which the rodent population can reach the peak,while the optimum range of rainfall is 180.1~210.0 mm,under which the rodent population in residential area,paddy field area and dry area all reach the peak.When the rainfall is higher than 210.1 mm,the rodent population in residential area decreases slightly,rises slightly in dry area,but tends to be stable in paddy field.The population number of rodents fluctuates with the annual rainfall,showing a certain correlation.