人民币汇率变动对工业行业工资水平的影响--基于跨境贸易人民币结算发展的实证研究

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Industrial Wages Based on the Development of RMB Settlement in Cross-border Trade

利用2000-2018年我国工业行业面板数据,考察了人民币汇率变动对工资水平的总体和异质性影响。研究发现:人民币汇率会通过净出口水平、进出口产品结构、经人民币国际化进程修正的净出口水平这三条贸易路径对工资产生影响。人民币汇率通过净出口水平对工资的负向影响最显著,但随着我国工业贸易顺差收窄以及人民币结算“跛足”特征的改善,上述影响会减弱。人民币汇率通过进出口产品结构对工资产生正向影响,且愈发明显。人民币汇率通过经修正的净出口水平对工资的影响最微弱。人民币汇率对不同工业行业工资的影响是因为不同行业进出口产品结构存在差异,垄断水平、技术水平和贸易来源地是造成不同行业间工资回报差异的重要因素。

Under the background of RM Bsettlement in cross-border trade,this paper explores a new trade path of RMB exchange rate affecting wages,and uses China's industrial panel data from 2000 to 2018 to investigate the overall and heterogeneous impact of RMB exchange rate changes on wages.It is found that RMB exchange rate affects wages through three trade paths:net export level,import and export product structure,and net export level corrected by RM B internationalization process.The RM Bexchange rate has the most significant negative impact on wages through the net export level,but with the narrowing of China's industrial trade surplus and the improvement of RMB settlement"lameness",the above impact will weaken;the RMB exchange rate has a positive impact on wages through the import and export product structure,and it is more obvious;the RMB exchange rate has the least impact on wages through the revised net export level.The impact of RMB exchange rate on wages in different industries is due to the differences in the structure of import and export products in different industries,and the monopoly level,technical level and trade source are the important factors causing the wage return differences among different industries.