生育率视角下生育政策与社会基本养老保障协调发展研究

Fertility Policy and Basic Old-Age Security

随着我国社会养老保险保障水平的不断提高和计划生育政策的逐渐放开,家庭生育决策越来越受到国家政策影响。立足我国现有生育水平和基本养老保障制度的现状,揭示不同生育政策下生育率的变化,以及不同时期社会基本养老保险保障水平的发展趋势,旨在探讨生育率与基本养老保险支出水平和计划生育政策实施强度的相关关系。文章选取1997—2017年省级(西藏除外)相关变量面板数据进行回归,实证结果表明:我国生育率与基本养老保险支出水平、计划生育政策实施强度均呈负相关关系。基于此,提出进一步优化我国生育政策、完善我国基本养老保险制度的政策建议。

With the continuous uplifting of China's social endowment insurance and security and the gradual loosening of the family planning policy,the family birth decision is more susceptible to the national policy.Based on the current fertility and the status quo of the basic old-age security in China,this paper reveals the changes of fertility rate under different fertility policies,and the development trend of social basic old-age insurance and security in different periods,in order to explore the correlation between fertility rate and basic old-age insurance expenditure with the implementation intensity of family planning policy.This paper,based on the panel data of relevant variables at the provincial level(except Tibet)from 1997 to 2017,found that the fertility rate in China is negatively correlated with the expenditure of basic endowment insurance and the implementation intensity of the family planning policy.It proposed to further optimize the birth policy and perfect the basic endowment insurance system.