疫情全球蔓延下推动国内国际双循环促进经贸发展的困境及纾解举措

Difficulties and countermeasures of promoting domesticand international dual cycle to improve economic and tradedevelopment under the global spread of COVID-19

自习近平总书记提出“形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”以来,“双循环”成为热议问题。研究认为:(1)中美摩擦叠加疫情全球蔓延使得中国经贸发展遭遇到“四重困境”即对等反制、疫情冲击、信任缺失和政治摩擦等困境,推动国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局是突破“四重困境”的新时代策略。(2)我国国内有效需求相对有限决定着更需要推动国内国际双循环实现真正互促式发展;国内一些产品无效供给、另一些高端产品有效供给不足,决定着疫情下我国需要积极拓展有效市场需求和有效产品供给。(3)坚持要素市场化配置,优化营商环境,以做大做强国内国际双循环互促发展的市场交集。(4)需要采取多维政策举措(如打造双循环海外枢纽、支持中心城市辐射、实施区域梯度互补战略等)协调推进全面开放,加快形成一个要素市场化配置、国内国际双循环相互促进和竞争有序统一的大市场,进而支撑起中国经济可持续增长。

Since General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward“the formation of a new development pattern with domestic and international dual cycles as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles”,“dual cycles”have become a hot issue.The studies show that:1)The US-China economic and trade frictions overlapped with the global spread of COVID-19 have caused China’s economic and trade development to encounter a“quadruple dilemma”,namely,peer-to-peer countermeasures,pandemic shock,lack of trust,and political frictions.The new development pattern,which promotes the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles,is a new era strategy to break through the“four dilemmas”.2)The relatively limited domestic effective demand in China determines the more need to promote the domestic and international dual cycles to achieve real mutual promotion.The ineffective supply of some domestic products and the insufficient effective supply of some high-end products determine that China needs to actively expand effective market demand and effective product supply under the pandemic.3)We need adhere to the market-oriented allocation of factors and optimize the business environment,so as to make the market intersection of domestic and international dual-cycle mutual development bigger and stronger.4)It is necessary to adopt multi-policy measures,such as building a dual-cycle overseas hub,supporting central city radiation,and implementing regional gradient complementary strategy,etc.,to coordinate the promotion of full opening up,and to accelerate the formation of a large market with market-oriented allocation of factors,mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles,and orderly competition and integration to support sustainable economic growth in China.