国家创业政策演化和发展的计量分析:特征与前瞻

Quantitative analysis of the evolution and development ofnational entrepreneurship policy:Characteristics and prospects

自改革开放以来,中国各级政府持续出台政策以支持小微创业,在不同的经济发展阶段,相关政策具有鲜明的时代烙印。2018年国务院“双创”升级战略后,需要进一步思考政策优化路径。文章选取2002至2018年间中央及部委发布的创业政策文本172件,对政策文本进行内容挖掘,以了解中国创业政策热点议题的演进态势,为后续政策出台提供思路参考。运用政策文本量化分析法,借助政策工具分析和政策文本挖掘手段、语义网络分析法,运用Ucinet工具等,深入分析国家政策关注点。研究发现:近17年来中国创业政策呈现“倒U”型发布态势,2015年达到高峰后,发文数量有所回落;中国创业政策体系基本建立,政策链逐步形成,围绕每个时期的国家战略以及“根政策”,中央和部委之间的政策呼应性较好;政策主体呈现多元化和协调性趋势,联合发文数量快速递增,形成复杂府际关系;政策工具呈现全面性和非均衡性趋势,“政府采购”“对外承包”等拉动需求的政策工具使用率偏低;政策关注点呈现深化性和时代性特点,“产业融合”、创业“服务”、创业“保障”等都成为关注点,但“小微+新技术”组合、“一带一路”倡议的政策体现有所不足。本研究自建“中国创业政策文本库”,对政策文本进行测量和数据挖掘,并展开阶段性演化分析,分析思路与结论,都体现了本研究的创新之处。

Since China’s reform and opening up,governments at all levels have continuously issued policies to support small and micro entrepreneurship.At different stages of economic development,relevant policies have a distinct brand of the times.Under the upgrade strategy of“Double Creation”of the State Council in 2018,we need to further consider the path of policy optimization.In this study,172 entrepreneurship policy texts issued by the central and ministries from 2002 to 2018 are selected to mine the content of the policy texts,in order to understand the evolution trend of hot issues of entrepreneurship policy in China,and to provide ideas for the follow-up policy introduction.Using the quantitative analysis method of policy text,with the aid of policy tool analysis and policy text mining means,semantic network analysis method,and Ucinet tools,this paper makes in-depth analysis of national policy concerns.The results show that:1)In the past 17 years,China’s entrepreneurship policy has shown a trend of“inverted U”publication.After reaching its peak in 2015,the number of articles published has fallen.2)China’s entrepreneurship policy system has been basically established,and the policy chain has gradually formed.Around the national strategy and the“root policy”of each period,the policies between the central and ministries have a good echo.3)The main body of policy shows a trend of diversification and coordination.The number of joint publications increases rapidly,forming complex inter-governmental relations.4)Policy instruments show a comprehensive and unbalanced trend.The utilization rate of policy tools such as“government procurement”and“external contracting”to stimulate demand is low.5)Policy concerns are characterized by deepening and times.“Industry convergence”,entrepreneurship“service”and entrepreneurship“guarantee”have become the focus of attention.However,the policy of“small and micro+new technology”and“One Belt and One Road”initiative are inadequate.The innovation of this study is embodied in the self-built“China’s Entrepreneurship Policy Text Database”,the measurement and data mining of policy texts,the stage evolution analysis and the analysis of ideas and conclusions.