考虑无症状携带者的疫情防控措施计算模拟

Computational Simulation on Infectious Diseases Control Measures Considering Asymptomatic Carrier

建立考虑人员流动与存在无症状携带者的SEIRD模型,通过计算实验方法模拟感染者隔离、限制个体移动和提高救治能力三种措施对COVID-19扩散的影响。结果表明:感染者隔离措施实施越早,则人群中的感染态比例越低;较早实施限制个体移动措施且限制程度越严格,则会显著降低人群中无症状携带者比例和感染者比例;较早开始救治感染者并提高治疗能力,将有助于减少感染个体的比例。

This study established a SEIRD model that takes into account the movement of people and the presence of asymptomatic carriers,and uses computational experiments to simulate the effects of three measures on the spread of COVID-19:isolation of infected persons,restriction of individual movement,and improvement of treatment capacity.The results show that the earlier the implementation of the isolation measures for infected persons,the lower the proportion of infected persons in the population;the earlier the implementation of restrictions on the movement of individuals and the stricter the restrictions will significantly reduce the proportion of asymptomatic carriers and the proportion of infected persons;Early treatment of infected people and improvement of treatment capacity will help reduce the proportion of infected in⁃dividuals.