新形势下中国煤层气勘探开发前景与对策思考

Prospects and strategies of CBM exploration and development in China under the new situation

在国家要求天然气“增储上产”及煤层气产业整体处于“瓶颈”阶段的新形势下,分析煤层气勘探开发前景和对策意义重大。鉴于此,分析了国内外煤层气产业发展成功经验与失败教训,从影响我国煤层气产量增长方面探讨当前产业存在的若干问题,分析了未来中国煤层气持续发展的重要领域和方向。基于我国煤层气开发的特点和技术水平,结合煤层气储量和资源潜力,综合应用产量构成法、生命模型法和储产比控制法预测了我国煤层气产业发展潜力与前景。研究认为:我国煤层气产业持续发展存在诸多制约因素,主要包括:①后备区准备不足;②单井产量低,整体处于低效开发状态;③地质条件复杂,煤层气勘探开发技术难以复制;④对外合作项目进展缓慢,推动难度较大。同时认为,煤层气仍是我国当前较现实的非常规天然气资源,高产老区稳产上产、低产低效老区改造、低煤阶与构造复杂区效益开发、深部及煤系天然气综合开发是未来中国煤层气产量持续增长的方向,2035年我国煤层气地面井产量可达到150×10^(8)~250×10^(8)m^(3)。在此基础上,提出了我国煤层气产业发展5项对策建议:①加大勘探评价工作量,落实更多优质储量,夯实建产基础;②加强优质储量动用,持续开展增产改造试验,助力老区稳产上产;③加强科技攻关和煤层气开发示范试验,确保新建产区效益开发;④加强对外合作区项目监管,推动合作区快速建产;⑤加大财政补贴及税收优惠扶持力度。

China requires to“increase reserves and production”of natural gas,and the coalbed methane(CBM)industry is in the“bottleneck”stage.Under such situations,it is of significance to analyze the prospect and strategies of CBM exploration and development in China.The successful experience and failure lessons in the development of CBM industry at home and abroad were researched.From the aspects of influencing production growth,the problems existing in the CBM industry in China were discussed,the important areas and directions of sustainable development of CBM in China in the future were analyzed.Based on the characteristics and technical progress of the CBM development,combined with the reserves and resource potential of CBM in China,the production composition method,life model method and reserve production ratio control method were comprehensively applied to predict the development potential and prospect of CBM industry in China.It is recognized that there are many factors impeding the sustainable development of CBM industry in China,including①insufficient preparation for the productivity areas,②low production and low efficiency development of single well,③difficulty in terms of applying the exploration and development technologies due to the complex geological conditions,and④slow progress of the international cooperation projects.It is also recognized that CBM is still an unconventional natural gas resource worth developing in China,and the sustainable growth direction of CBM in China in the future is the stable production of mature areas with high yield,production increase of low yield areas,economic development of the low-rank coal and coal in complex structural areas,deep CBM resources and the commingling of coal-measure gas.The production of CBM in China is expected to reach(150-250)×10^(8)m^(3)by 2035.Based on the study above,five strategies for the CBM industry development in China are put forward.First,more attention should be paid to the exploration and evaluation of CBM to implement more high-quality reserves.Second,the production of the old areas should be increased,the utilization of high-quality reserves should be strengthened,and the improved experiments of old areas with low yield and low efficiency should be continuously carried out.Third,the demonstration test of CBM development should be strengthened to ensure the economic development of new production areas.Fourth,the supervision of the cooperation projects should be strengthened to promote the development capacity.Fifth,some financial subsidies and preferential tax support are suggested to increase.