基于PVAR的长江经济带旅游产业减贫效应研究

Research on poverty reduction effect of tourism industry in Yangtze rivereconomic belt based on PVAR

基于2007—2017年长江经济带省级面板数据,在面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)的基础上,运用稳定性检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法对长江经济带旅游产业发展与减贫效应的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,长江经济带旅游产业发展对贫困发生率的影响随着年份变化由大变小,贫困发生率先增大后减小;长江经济带贫困发生率对旅游产业发展的影响会随着年份变化由大变小,在贫困发生率的影响下,旅游产业发展先增大后减小;长江经济带旅游产业发展对贫困发生率的影响大于贫困发生率对旅游产业发展的影响。基于此,为了进一步增强长江经济带旅游产业的减贫效应,需要延长旅游产业链,强化旅游业对贫困的脱贫力度;加大对地区基础设施建设的投资,为旅游产业的基础设施服务奠定基础;合理规划开发旅游资源,同时加大对旅游资源的保护;走特色旅游发展之路,打造出特色化程度高、服务质量好的优质旅游产业。

Based on the provincial panel data of the Yangtze river economic belt from 2007 to 2017,and on the basis of panel vector autoregression model,the relationship between tourism industry development and poverty reduction in the Yangtze river economic belt was empirically studied by means of stability test,granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition. The results showed that the impact of tourism industry development on the incidence of poverty in the Yangtze river economic belt decreased with the passage of years. The impact of poverty incidence on the development of tourism industry in the Yangtze river economic belt changed from large to small with the year. Under the influence of poverty incidence,the development of tourism industry first increased and then decreased. The impact of the development of tourism industry on the incidence of poverty in the Yangtze river economic belt was greater than that of poverty on the development of tourism industry. Based on this,in order to further enhance the poverty reduction effect of the tourism industry in the Yangtze river economic belt,it is necessary to extend the tourism industry chain and strengthen the poverty alleviation efforts of the tourism industry;Increase investment in regional infrastructure construction to lay a foundation for infrastructure services of the tourism industry;Rational planning and development of tourism resources,while increasing the protection of tourism resources;We will take the road of characteristic tourism development and develop a tourism industry with high characteristic and good service quality.