城市快速路交织区运行风险预测模型

Operation Risk Evaluation Model of Weaving Area of Urban Highway

为了探究城市快速路交织区交通特点,提出交织区运行风险预测分析方法。首先基于城市快速路交织区断面线圈数据及自然驾驶试验数据,分析城市快速路交织区运行特点,结果表明交织区车辆变道行为导致其运行风险增大;然后基于VISSIM仿真试验方法,分析交织区运行风险影响因素,建立运行风险预测模型,同时采用K均值聚类分析法提出风险分级标准;最后采用无人机采集的交通流数据进行运行风险预测模型误差分析。研究成果可为城市快速路的设计管理提供工具和参考。

The traffic characteristics of weaving area of urban highway were analyzed based on the loop detector data and the natural driving data.The operation risk evaluation model of the weaving area was established using the VISSIM traffic simulation method and the K-means clustering.Drone aerial data were used to verify the feasibility of this model in the end.The results show that the operation risk evaluation model for urban highway weaving section was feasible.This study provided a reference and a basis for the research and implementation of the operation risk assessment for urban highway weaving section.