人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支的影响

The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China’s import and export trade

入世以来,中国的对外贸易额与日俱增,国际收支占国内生产总值的比重也随之提高增加。而汇率作为国际收支的影响因素之一,也成了众多学者的研究对象。在以往学者的研究之上,论文通过利用VAR模型,探究人民币有效汇率对中国国际收支的影响,从而得出结论:汇率波动对我国国际收支在短期内有显著影响,因此我国应该制定适当的货币与财政政策,调整汇率,从而达到实施有管制的浮动汇率制的目的,有效避免汇率波动对我国国际收支产生不利影响。

Since China's entry into the WTO,China's foreign trade volume has increased day by day,and the proportion of international payments in China's GDP has also increased.As one of the factors affecting the balance of payments,exchange rate has also become the research object of many scholars.On the basis of previous studies,this paper uses the VAR model to explore the impact of the effective exchange rate of RMB on China's balance of payments,and concludes that exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on China's balance of payments in the short term,so China should adjust the exchange rate through appropriate monetary and fiscal policies,so as to achieve the purpose of implementing a regulated floating exchange rate system,effectively avoid adverse effects on China's balance of payments due to exchange rate fluctuations.