特别重大事故影响个体风险偏好吗?——基于中国家庭金融调查的资产配置实证

Do Extraordinarily Serious Accidents Affect Individuals’ Risk Preference?——Evidences Based on the China Household Finance Survey

基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,本文实证检验了"特别重大事故"这一外生负面冲击对个体风险偏好的影响。结果表明:第一,特大事故的发生能够显著地降低个体主观风险偏好;第二,将所有特大事故按照事故类型划分为交通事故、矿业事故和其他事故三类,发现与日常生活联系更为紧密的特大交通事故能够对个体主观风险偏好产生更强的冲击作用;第三,利用个体所在家庭的金融资产配置情况和实体工商业投资情况分别表征其在金融市场和非金融市场中的风险承担行为,发现特大事故的发生对家庭的高风险金融资产配置比例产生了明显的挤出效应,同时也抑制了家庭对实体工商业的投资行为;第四,机制研究中,本文逐一讨论了负面冲击影响个体风险偏好的主流理论框架,在排除了财富效应和预期收入效应的同时,认为凸显效应和情绪效应可能是特大事故影响个体风险偏好的两大主要渠道。本文的主要发现为理解特大事故等突发事件对经济社会产生的负面影响提供了新的视角和证据;对当前防疫常态化后投资与消费的恢复具有一定的参考价值;并对中国突发事件应急管理体系的健全和完善具有一定的现实意义。

Taking the extraordinarily serious accidents(hereinafter ESA) in China as exogenous shocks,and based on the data from China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),this paper empirically tested the influence of ESA on individual’s risk preference.The results are as follows:ESA can significantly decrease the level of individuals’ risk preference;individuals’ risk preference can be most extraordinarily changed by traffic ESA which are much closer to people’s daily life,among the traffic,mining and other types of ESA;taking household financial assets allocation and investment into enterprises as the representatives of risk-taking behaviors,the research reveals that the occurrence of ESA has a significant crowding-out effect on the proportion of high-risk financial assets and investment into enterprises.As for mechanism studies,the paper respectively tested the mainstream theoretical frameworks negatively affecting individuals’ risk preference.After eliminating the wealth effect and expected income effect,the paper deems that salience effect and emotion effect might well be the influencing channels.This paper offers a new perspective and evidences for understanding ESA’s negative impacts on social and economic fields.It helps with the recovery of investment and consumption after the epidemic prevention being regularized.Moreover,it can serve as a reference to the strengthening and perfecting of China’s emergency management system.