基于区域经济发展的铁路郑州北站货运量预测

Freight Volume Forecast of Zhengzhou North Railway Station Based on Regional Economic Development

铁路货运量作为我国铁路交通运输基础设施建设规模的首要考虑,亦是国家宏观经济发展对铁路运输相关需求的直接反映,对国家和区域经济发展规划十分重要。分析区域经济发展影响铁路货运量的相关因素,归纳现有铁路货运量预测的原理和方法,建立基于灰色预测法和最优加权法的货运量预测模型,以郑州北站的真实运营数据验证预测结果,并对该站以后连续8年的货运量进行预测,为研究区域经济对铁路运输业发展提供一定参考。

Railway freight volume is the main basis for determining the scale of railway transportation infrastructure construction,and it is also a direct reflection of national macroeconomic development on railway transportation-related demand,which is very important for national and regional economic development planning.This paper analyzes the related factors of regional economic development that affect railway freight volume,summarizes the existing principles and methods of railway freight volume forecast,and establishes the freight volume forecast model based on grey forecast method and optimal weighting method.Based on the real operation data of Zhengzhou North railway station,the forecast results are verified and the freight volume of the station is predicted for 8 consecutive years,which provides some references for the development of railway transport industry in the study of regional economy.