江西省生态系统服务价值演变及空间自相关特征分析

Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value and Spatial Autocorrelation Characteristics in Jiangxi Province

鉴于江西省近些年城市化进程的加快,势必会对当地生态环境造成破坏。以江西省为研究对象,采用2000年、2010年、2020年3期土地利用数据,运用Arc GIS软件和Geo Da软件对研究数据进行预处理,然后结合当量因子法、断点法、生态系统服务价值核算法和空间自相关分析法,分析研究区ESV的时空变化。结果表明:1) 2000—2020年期间,江西省各地类ESV中林地>耕地>水域>草地>未利用地;2)从时序上分析,2000—2020年,变化最大的是林地ESV,减少了21.240亿元,次之是耕地,减少了5.577亿元,草地和未利用地面积占比较小,也均呈现减少的趋势,其中仅水域ESV增加了10.107亿元,未利用地变化率最大,降低了-41.678%,林地贡献率为56.723%,这与土地利用面积变化一致;3)从空间上分析整个江西省100个县区,地均ESV中高值区主要分布于赣州市的大部,武宁县、宁都县、鄱阳县、修水县分别为60.136亿元、54.058亿元、49.346亿元、45.771亿元,低值区以珠山区0亿元ESV为最低;4)近20 a,各地类生态系统服务价值敏感性指数均<1,也就是ESV对评估结果缺乏弹性,结果可信;5)借助Geo Da软件对江西省100个县区的ESV进行空间自相关分析,自2000—2020年Moran’I指数分别是0.333、0.331、0.332呈现先减少后增加趋势,计算结果经过Z值检验p值=0.001 <0.05,证明Moran’I显著有效。表明江西省整个ESV均呈显著的正相关关系。

In view of the acceleration of urbanization in Jiangxi Province in recent years,it is bound to cause damage to the local ecological environment. This paper takes Jiangxi Province as the research object,uses the land use data of 2000,2010 and 2020,uses ArcGIS software and geoda software to preprocess the data,and then combines the equivalent factor method and the natural breakpoint method,The spatial and temporal variation of ESV in the study area was analyzed by ecosystem service value accounting method and spatial autocorrelation analysis method. The results showed that: 1) from 2000 to 2020,forest land > cultivated land > water area > grassland > unused land. 2) From 2000 to 2020,the biggest change is woodland ESV,with a decrease of 2. 124 billion yuan,followed by cultivated land,with a decrease of 557. 7 million yuan. The area of grassland and unused land is relatively small,showing a decreasing trend among them,only water ESV increased by 1. 010 7 billion yuan,the change rate of unused land was the largest,decreased by-41. 678%,and the contribution rate of forest land was 56. 723%,which was consistent with the change of land use area. 3) From the spatial analysis of the whole 100 counties in Jiangxi province,the average ESV high value areas are mainly distributed in most of Ganzhou city,including Wuning county,Ningdu county,Poyang county and Xiushui county,which are 6. 013 billion yuan,5. 405 8 billion yuan,4. 934 6 billion yuan and 4. 577 1 billion yuan respectively. In the low value area,the ESV of 0 billion yuan in Zhushan area was the lowest. 4) In the past 20 years,the sensitivity index of ecosystem services value in different regions was less than 1,which means that ESV is not flexible to the assessment results,and the results are credible. 5) With the help of geoda software,the spatial autocorrelation analysis of ESV in 100 counties of Jiangxi Province shows that Moran and I index are0. 333,0. 331 and 0. 332 respectively from 2000 to 2020,showing a trend of decreasing first and then. The calculation results are tested by Z value,P = 0. 001 < 0. 05,which proves that Moran and I are significantly effective. The results show that the whole ESV in Jiangxi province has a significant positive correlation.