跨境电商综合试验区政策推动居民消费升级了吗?——基于双重差分法的实证检验

Has the Policy of Cross-border E-commerce Comprehensive Experimental Zone Promoted the Upgrading of Residents’Consumption?--Empirical Test Based on Difference-in-Difference Method

跨境电子商务综合试验区是推动外贸高质量发展的重要举措,有利于促进消费回流,进一步推动居民消费升级。利用中国跨境电商综合试验区政策的准自然实验,采用2012—2018年中国36个大中城市面板数据,系统评估了跨境电商综合试验区政策对消费的影响及其影响机制。研究发现:跨境电商综合试验区政策对消费升级具有显著的正向影响;从异质性角度看,中西部地区跨境电商综合试验区政策对消费升级具有显著的正向影响,政策效果显著,而东部地区政策效果不显著;从影响机制看,跨境电商综合试验区政策通过加大信息化建设力度、深化政府宏观调控水平、提高居民可支配收入和提升地区经济发展水平等直接和间接路径释放居民潜在消费需求,推动消费升级。中国应进一步推广跨境电商综合试验区的试点范围,为推动跨境电商和跨境消费提供可复制、可推广的经验。

Establishing cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone is an important measure to promote the high-quality development of foreign trade,which is conducive to promoting the return of consumption and further promoting the upgrading of residents’consumption.Using the quasi-natural experiment of China’s cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone policy and the panel data from 36 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2012 to 2018,the paper systematically evaluated the impact of the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone policy on consumption and examined the impact mechanism.The study found that:The cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone policy has a significant positive impact on consumption upgrade;from the perspective of heterogeneity,the policy of the central and western regions cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone has a significant positive impact on consumption upgrading,and the policy effect is significant,while the policy effect in the eastern region is not significant;the analysis of the impact mechanism shows that the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone policy releases potential consumption demand and promotes consumption upgrading through direct and indirect paths,such as increasing information construction,deepening the level of government macro-control,increasing residents’disposable income and enhancing regional economic development.Therefore,China should further promote the experimental scope of the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone to provide reproducible and extendable experience for promoting cross-border e-commerce and cross-border consumption.