基于多元状态估计的供热管道外施负载预警方法研究

Research on Early Warning Method of Externally Applied Load of Heating Pipeline Based on Multivariate State Estimation

由于供热管道在高温高压下极易出现暂时性故障或者测量误差,从而会导致获得的供热管道数据存在异常数据点,增大负载信息观测值与估计值之间残差,导致最后的供热管道外施负载预警效果差。对此,我们将多元状态估计方法应用到供热管道外施负载预警中。对供热管道历史数据采集并进行标准化处理,利用数据信息对供热管道可靠性评估,通过多元状态估计方法建立记忆矩阵,设定偏离度与预警阈值,及时检测出管道的轻微异常变化,以实现基于多元状态估计的供热管道外施负载预警。实验证明,此次设计的供热管道外施负载预警方法预警时间比传统方法预警时间少,并且外施负载压力计算准确度高,由此证明此次设计的基于多元状态估计的供热管道外施负载预警方法预警效果好,证明了所设计方法的有效性。

Because the heating pipeline is prone to temporary faults or measurement errors under high temperature and high pressure,it will lead to abnormal data points in the obtained heating pipeline data,increase the residual between the load information observation and the estimated value,resulting in the final supply The effect of early warning of externally applied load on a heat pipe is poor.Therefore,the multi-state estimation method is applied to the early warning of externally applied load on a heating pipe.Collect and standardize the historical data of the heating pipeline,use the data information to evaluate the reliability of the heating pipeline,establish the memory matrix through the multi-state estimation method,set the deviation and early warning threshold,and detect the slight abnormal changes of the pipeline in time to achieve Based on multi-state estimation of heating pipeline external load warning.The experiment proves that the early warning time of the externally applied load warning method of the heating pipeline designed this time is less than that of the traditional method,and the accuracy of the applied load pressure calculation is high,which proves that the designed external heating pipeline based on multi-state estimation The early warning effect of the load early warning method is good,which proves the effectiveness of the designed method.