银行资产配置趋势与中央银行流动性管理——基于动力系统模型的模拟分析

Bank Asset Allocation Trends and Central Bank Liquidity Management——Simulation Analysis Based on Dynamic System Model

近年来,我国宏观流动性投放逐步由以前的被动投放(外汇占款)向主动投放转变,银行业资产配置结构更趋多元化,金融创新更加活跃,这些都在一定程度上改变了金融体系流动性传导的渠道和机制,迫使我们重新审视流动性在金融体系中消长、转移的内在逻辑,探讨新形势下流动性管理的合理方式和路径。本文运用动力系统模型来分析和论证银行资产配置结构变化对市场流动性状况的影响机制,以及中央银行流动性管理工具的有效性。研究表明,银行资产配置趋势的同质化容易导致市场流动性状况的恶化;中央银行需要进一步完善利率传导机制,强化货币政策与宏观审慎评估政策的协同配合,以提升流动性管理的有效性。

In recent years,the release of macro liquidity in China gradually changes from passive into initiative.The banking asset allocation structure become more diversified,and financial innovation become more active.All these change the channels and mechanisms of the financial system liquidity conduction,forcing us to revisit the internal logic of liquidity in the financial system and the reasonable way and path for the liquidity management.This paper analyzes and demonstrates the impact mechanism of the change of bank asset allocation structure on the market liquidity conditions and the effectiveness of the central bank liquidity management tools through the dynamic system model simulation.It shows that the homogenization of banks'asset allocation is easy to lead to the deterioration of market liquidity.The central bank needs to further improve the interest rate transmission mechanism,strengthen the coordination between monetary policy and macro-prudential evaluation policy,so as to enhance the effectiveness of liquidity management.