大兴安岭林区典型森林和草甸细小死可燃物含水率预测模型

Moisture Content Prediction Model of Fine Dead Fuel in Typical Forest and Meadows in Daxing’an Mountains

准确预测森林细小死可燃物含水率对提高森林和草原火险预测精度具有重要的科学意义。以大兴安岭林区兴安落叶松-白桦(Larix gmelinii-Betula platyphylla)混交林、兴安落叶松林(Larix gmelinii)、蒙古栎林(Quercus mongolica)和草甸细小死可燃物为研究对象,确定影响林内t时刻可燃物含水率变化率的影响因子(林外t-1时刻的气温变化率、相对湿度变化率和累计降水量变化率),根据统计回归理论建立细小死可燃物含水率变化率模型,进而构建大兴安岭林区典型森林和草甸细小死可燃物含水率预测模型。结果表明:兴安落叶松-白桦林混交林、兴安落叶松林、蒙古栎林和草甸细小死可燃物含水率预测模型准确率分别为91.1%、90.0%、91.0%和81.0%(相对误差不超过5%),可燃物含水率预测模型预测效果良好,模型具有较好的实用性,可为大兴安岭林区的森林火险预警提供理论和技术支持。

It is of great scientific significance to accurately predict the finedead fuel moisture content in forest and grass for improving the prediction accuracy of forest and grassland fire risk.With the finedead fuel in the Larix gmelinii-Butula platyphylla mixied forest,L.gmelinii forest,Quercus mongolica forest and swamp meadows in the Daxing’an Mountains,by the correlation theory,the influence factors of the rate of change of the moisture content of fine dead fuel at the time in the forest were determined as the temperature change rate,the relative humidity change rate and the cumulative rainfall change rate at the time outside the forest.By the statistical regression theory,we established a model for the change rate of moisture content of fine dead fuel,and then constructed a prediction model for the moisture content of fine dead fuel in each typical forests and swamp meadows.With the test data of the plots,the accuracy values of the predictive model of moisture content of the three typical forests(L.gmelinii-B.platyphylla mixed forest,L.gmelinii forest,Q.mongolica forest)and swamp meadows were 91.1%,90.0%,91.0%and 81.0%(relative error not exceeding 5%),respectively,indicating the use of the correlation theory to construct combustibles.The moisture content prediction model is feasible and the model has good practicability,and it can provide technical support for the forest fire prediction in the Daxing’an Mountains area.