海运运价指数研究综述

Literature Review on Shipping Freight Index

海运运价指数反映航运市场水平的动态变化,对贸易成本有重要影响。结合近些年海运运价指数的文献研究进展,首次对波罗的海干散货运价指数(BDI)、波罗的海原油运价指数(BDTI)以及中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)三个海运运价指数的影响因素、波动周期性和指数预测方法研究领域的成果进行归纳整理和对比分析,为航运公司、船舶中间商的经营决策提供参考。影响因素主要从供需关系下的运输成本、航运市场、经济环境三个因素展开,波动周期结合各航运市场的特征并分析原因,预测方法则围绕线性模型与非线性模型进行比较,在文献述评的基础上指出目前研究的不足与未来的研究方向。

The maritime freight index reflects the dynamic changes of the shipping market level and has an important impact on trade costs.This article combines the literature research progress on the maritime freight index in recent years,summarizing and analyzing the influencing factors,volatility and periodicity of the price index and the results of the index forecast method research fields of the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index(BDI),the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index(BDTI)and the China Export Container Freight Index(CCFI)three maritime freight index for the first time,which provides a reference for the business decision-making of shipping companies and ship brokers.The influencing factors are mainly based on the three factors of transportation cost,shipping market and economic environment under the relationship of supply and demand.The fluctuation cycle combines the characteristics of each shipping market and analyzes the reasons.The forecasting method is based on the comparison between the linear model and the nonlinear model.On the basis of literature review,it points out the current research deficiencies and future research directions.