公共交通导向的多模式疏散规划理论框架

A Theoretical Framework of Transit-oriented Multimodal Evacuation Planning

多模式疏散规划旨在兼顾低行动力人群和其他人群不同的疏散需求特征,对公共交通和个体交通相结合的多种疏散方式进行综合分析与优化。但是,国际上对多模式疏散的研究缺乏对公共交通的支持。针对我国低行动力人群比重高、应急疏散资源紧张等国情,提出应急疏散中的"公共交通导向"构想,建立了公共交通导向的多模式疏散规划理论框架,在疏散需求建模预测基础上,实施疏散小区划分、公交集结点选址、疏散网络设计等规划流程,构造分层集约化网络,探讨公共交通导向的应急交通组织策略和应急疏散网络优化模型等关键方法。结合南京青年奥林匹克运动会交通组织工作进行应用,在未采取强制行政措施的前提下,75.4%的市民认为日常出行基本未受影响。

Multimodal evacuation planning aims to take account of different evacuation demand characteristics of both low-mobility people and other groups,and comprehensively optimize multiple evacuation modes combining public transit and individual transport.However,international studies on multimodal evacuation lack support for public transit.In a view of high proportion of low-mobility people and insufficient resources of emergency evacuation in China,a concept of“transit-oriented”in emergency evacuation is put forward.A framework of transit-oriented multimodal evacuation planning is established,and transit-oriented emergency traffic organization strategies are innovated.The key issues of multimodal evacuation including demand forecasting,bus pick-up site location,bus evacuation routing,and multimodal evacuation network design are discussed.Combined with the traffic organization work of Nanjing Youth Olympic Games,75.4%of the citizens think that their daily travel is basically unaffected without taking compulsory administrative measures.