基于灰色关联度的宁夏设施农用地变化及影响因素研究

The study on the change of facility agricultural land and its influencing factors based on grey correlation degree in Ningxia

发展设施农业是推进传统农业向现代农业转型的必由之路,完善设施农用地管理,促进设施农业健康有序发展,是加快宁夏农业现代化建设的重要举措。本研究通过梳理国家、自治区相关土地政策,根据宁夏2009—2018年土地利用变更调查数据,分析宁夏设施农用地现状及变化情况,并构建灰色关联度模型分析影响宁夏设施农用地变化的指标因子,对影响指标因子进行重要性排序。结果表明:(1)十年来,宁夏设施农业快速发展,设施农用地面积由5707.97 hm^(2)持续增长到11844.01 hm^(2),增长幅度较大。(2)从空间分布上看,设施农用地主要分布于地势平坦、水资源充足的北部和中部地区,而增长速度则以中、南部地区较快。(3)从流向来看,设施农用地流入面积远大于流出面积,主要由草地和耕地流入,主要转出为城镇村及工矿用地、耕地和交通运输用地。(4)人口增加、城镇化发展与社会经济发展和设施农用地面积增加关系密切,而乡村人口数和设施农用地面积的关联度相对较低。

Developing facility agriculture is the only way to promote the traditional agriculture transform to modern agriculture.Improving the management of facility agricultural land and promoting the healthy and orderly development of facility agriculture is an important measure to accelerate the agricultural modernization construction in Ningxia.This study sorted out relevant land-use policies of the state and the autonomous region,analyzed the status quo and changes of Ningxia’s facility agricultural land by using the survey data of Ningxia’s land-use which changes from 2009 to 2018,and constructed a grey correlation degree model to analyze the index factors affecting the change of Ningxia’s facility agricultural land,and ranked the importance of the influencing factors.The results show that:(1)In the past ten years,Ningxia’s facility agricultural developed rapidly,the area of facility agricultural land has increased from 5,707.97 hm^(2) to 11,844.01 hm^(2),with a large increase.(2)From the perspective of spatial distribution,facility agricultural land is mainly distributed in the north and central regions with flat terrain and abundant water resources,while the growth rate is relatively fast in the central and southern regions.(3)From the perspective of the flow direction,the inflow area of facility agricultural land is much larger than the outflow area,which mainly from grassland and cultivated land,facility agricultural land mainly transferred out for urban villages and mining land,cultivated land and transportation land.(4)Population increase,urbanization development and social and economic development are closely related to the increase of the area of facility agricultural land,while the correlation degree between the number of rural population and the area of facility agricultural land is relatively low.